Deportivo still seeking first win as winless Valencia comes to Riazor

No blowouts and no losses yet either: that sums up the start to the season for Deportivo de La Coruña, who arrive unbeaten but still winless for this weekend's meeting with Valencia at ABANCA-Riazor in the latest round of LaLiga. Two draws in two matches for the home side, one point fewer for the visitors, who already know what defeat feels like. There's little room to relax in the standings, and plenty still to be settled.

Deportivo sit in 11th place with 2 points, the product of two draws with no wins or losses in two games played, having scored 2 goals and conceded 2. Over their most recent five-match sample, though, the Coruña side show a mix of one win, two losses and two draws, a more uneven stretch than their strictly measured start to the league would suggest. They average one goal scored per game and one conceded, and have yet to keep a clean sheet this season. Their most productive scoring window falls between the 16th and 30th minutes, and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, with two goals, is their top offensive threat.

Valencia, meanwhile, sit one spot and one point lower: they're 15th with 1 point, after a draw and a loss in two outings, with no goals scored and just one conceded. Over the last five matches we're using as a measure of recent form, the Valencia side picked up two wins, two draws and one loss, a somewhat sturdier showing than what they've produced so far in the league. They attack sparingly (0 goals per game on average) but defend with some solidity, having kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches, and their most dangerous stretch comes early, between minutes 0 and 15.

What the history says

Between the two sides there have been 8 previous meetings, and the balance clearly favors Valencia: 4 away wins, 3 draws and just 1 win for Deportivo. In terms of goals scored, the Valencia side also lead that historical tally, with 12 goals to Deportivo's 8.

The likely lineups

With the caveat that this is an estimated lineup of low reliability, Deportivo could field Leo Román in goal, with Ximo Navarro, Lucas Noubi, Giacomo Quagliata and Miguel Loureiro across the back line. In midfield, Mario Soriano, Luismi Cruz, Adrià Alti, Bil Nsongo and Lorenzo Amatucci would likely appear, with Aubameyang up top as the reference forward.

Valencia, with a somewhat more reliable projection, could line up with Stole Dimitrievski in goal; César Tárrega, Pepelu, Jesús Vázquez and José Gayà in defense; Javi Guerra, Guido Rodríguez, Luis Rioja, Diego López and Filip Ugrinic spread through midfield, and Hugo Duro as the central striker.

What the odds say

Our model, based on this season's trends, points to a tight match with a slight lean toward the visitors:

The numbers don't point to a clear favorite: the draw and the away win are separated by just six percentage points, and a home win sits only two points behind the draw. As for expected goals, the projection is 1.07 for Deportivo and 1.23 for Valencia, an estimated total of 2.30 goals in the match. As always, this is our own estimate and not a betting line.

With both teams still chasing their first win of the tournament, the clash at Riazor has all the makings of a game decided by small details: whoever manages to break the deadlock could walk away with a result that shifts the mood of their season's start.