Deportivo Hosts a Struggling Levante in a Riazor Clash With No Clear Favorite

Riazor hosts a meeting between table neighbors who arrive with different but similarly pressing needs. Deportivo de A Coruña sits eighth with 10 points, while Levante props up the bottom of the standings in seventeenth with 6, in a LaLiga campaign that still offers few certainties this early on.

Deportivo has posted 2 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses so far this season, with 12 goals scored and 11 conceded. Things have cooled off over their last five matches: one win, two draws and two losses, with their most recent outing ending in defeat. Levante, for its part, has 1 win, 3 draws and 3 losses in the league, with 11 goals scored and 15 conceded, and over its last five matches has also managed one win, two draws and two losses. Neither side arrives with much firepower to spare, though Deportivo at least holds a nearly even goal difference (+1) compared to the -4 the Granotas are carrying.

A couple of additional numbers deserve a closer look, since they come from samples different from the overall league record. Playing at home in LaLiga this season, Deportivo averages 1.24 goals scored and 1 conceded per match across four games, without a single clean sheet, and tends to score most between the 16th and 30th minutes. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang stands out as their top scorer in that sample, with 5 goals. On the other side, Levante on the road in LaLiga this season averages just 0.245 goals scored per match against 1.505 conceded, though with a clean sheet in 50% of those games, and tends to do its damage between the 31st and 45th minutes. Iván Romero and Roger Brugué share the scoring lead in that sample with 3 goals each.

The head-to-head record doesn't tip the scales much either: in 8 previous meetings, Deportivo has won twice, there have been 4 draws, and Levante has won twice, with the home side scoring 11 goals and the visitors 10 across that stretch.

Probable Lineups

Antonio Hidalgo relies on a recognizable core: Leo Román in goal, a back line of Ximo Navarro, José María Giménez, Giacomo Quagliata and Bright Ede, a double pivot of Luismi Cruz and Mario Soriano backed by Riki Rodríguez and Lorenzo Amatucci in midfield, and Bil Nsongo paired with Aubameyang up top. This is an estimated lineup based on recent matches, not a confirmed one.

Luís Castro, on the visiting side, looks set to keep Mathew Ryan in goal, with Adrián de la Fuente, Manu Sánchez, Aïssa Mandi and Jeremy Toljan across the back, Roger Brugué, Jon Ander Olasagasti, Oriol Rey and Enzo Bardeli in midfield, and the attack split between Iván Romero and Thiago Fernández. This is also a probable lineup, with medium reliability based on recent patterns.

What the Numbers Say

Our model projects an even match, with a slight tilt toward the home side:

These figures don't point to a clear favorite: Deportivo's 38% sits alongside Levante's 33% and a 29% chance of a draw, an almost three-way split. This is our own estimate, not a betting line. Expected goals back up that reading: 1.43 for Deportivo and 1.32 for Levante, a combined 2.75 that suggests an open scoreline, though the probability of both teams scoring sits at just 19% and the chance of the match going over 2.5 goals at 38%.

With Deportivo looking to snap its recent slide at home in Riazor and Levante needing points to avoid drifting further from the pack, this match has all the makings of one decided by small details rather than any gap in quality.