Denkey's brace sinks Atlanta United as Cincinnati rallies for 3-1 win

Atlanta United only got to enjoy a tied game for about 15 minutes. That was as long as the hope lasted at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, where FC Cincinnati walked away with a 3-1 win built on a Kevin Denkey brace, the second of his goals coming deep into stoppage time.

The home side started the stronger of the two, holding more of the ball and creating more chances, but lacked a finishing touch in the first half. Tristan Muyumba and Elias Baez both had clear looks on goal that were turned away by the visiting goalkeeper, and the match went into the break scoreless despite a dominance the stats would later confirm.

Cincinnati's one-two punch

The story changed in the second half. Just six minutes into the frame, Denkey showed up in the middle of the box to finish left-footed off a headed pass from Tom Barlow, making it 1-0 in the 51st minute. Atlanta United answered quickly, finding the equalizer in the 68th minute through Miguel Almiron, who finished right-footed from the middle of the box off a Breel Embolo assist to make it 1-1.

From there the game opened up, but it was FC Cincinnati that made the most of the space on offer. In the 83rd minute, Tom Barlow returned the favor with a shot into the top left corner off a Kyle Smith pass, putting Cincinnati up 1-2. The finishing blow came deep into stoppage time, which ran eight minutes: in the 96th minute, Denkey netted his second goal of the night with a low shot by the left post, assisted by Ender Echenique, sealing the final 1-3.

What the numbers say

Atlanta United held more of the ball and generated more overall volume, but FC Cincinnati made the most of the little it had, and above all was far more clinical in the moments that mattered.

In our post-match xG model, the split was close: 1.509 for Atlanta United versus 1.829 for FC Cincinnati, a gap that doesn't on its own explain such a lopsided final score.

Heading into the match, our projection called for a tight contest, with 35% odds for Atlanta United, 24% for a draw and 41% for FC Cincinnati, along with combined expected goals of 3.59. The result ended up falling in line with that forecast, which already had the visitors as favorites, though the manner of it, a closing stretch with two goals in the final 15 minutes, was impossible to see coming.

What it means in the standings

In the Eastern Conference, FC Cincinnati came into the match with 36 points from 27 games (9 wins, 9 draws and 9 losses), while Atlanta United had 27 points from 28 games (7 wins, 6 draws and 15 losses). The gap between the two sides before this result stood at 9 points, and the loss leaves the home side with no room to close the distance in a table where it already sat in 14th place.

For FC Cincinnati, Denkey's brace and Barlow's goal sum up a second half in which the team knew exactly when to strike. For Atlanta United, there's the feeling of having been the better side in terms of ball control, but unable to hold onto that control once the scoreboard started moving.