Lamine Yamal's Brace Powers Spain to Emphatic 4-1 Win Over Croatia

There was barely time to settle into your seat. In the 1st minute, with the match just underway at the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, Lamine Yamal had already made it 1-0 with a low left-footed finish after an assist from Álex Baena. That's how a night began that ended 4-1 in Spain's favor over Croatia, in UEFA Nations League group play.

The scare came just past the half-hour mark: Dion Beljo equalized with a header in the 27th minute, latching onto an Ivan Perisic cross that sailed into the top left corner. But Spain answered almost immediately. Three minutes later, in the 30th minute, Marc Pubill headed home from close range following a corner that Lamine Yamal delivered into the box, and the hosts were back in front, 2-1, the score at halftime.

In the second half, Spain struck again as soon as they found an opening. In the 62nd minute, Lamine Yamal notched his second goal of the night with an angled shot from the right, set up by Pedri, making it 3-1. The final blow came late: in the 88th minute, Nico Williams finished with his left foot from inside the box, assisted by Mikel Merino, sealing the 4-1 final score.

A dominant showing backed by the numbers

Spain's control was evident throughout the 90 minutes, and the stats back it up clearly.

With numbers like those, it's no surprise that the xG generated in the match (our own estimate calculated from the shots taken, not a prediction) favors Spain by 1.887 to 0.617. The gap in clear-cut chances and overall control ended up showing on the scoreboard.

Our preview gave Spain a 75% chance of winning, with 18% for a draw and just 7% for a Croatian victory, projecting 2.31 expected goals for the home side against 0.6 for the visitors, with a projected total of 2.91. The final result not only confirmed the favorites' status, it exceeded it, with Spain scoring four goals against the 2.31 we had projected.

What the result means for the group

In Group A3, Spain entered this match unbeaten and remain in first place with 6 points from 2 matches played, a record of 2 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses, and a goal difference of +4. Croatia, meanwhile, sit on 3 points from 2 matches (1 win, 0 draws, 1 loss) with a goal difference of -2, third in the group standings. The gap between the two sides in the table stands at 3 points.

With substitutions like Mikel Merino, Pedri, Nico Williams and Rodri coming off the bench, Spain rotated pieces without losing intensity, while Croatia, despite Slaven Bilic's adjustments bringing on Ante Budimir, Mario Pasalic, Franjo Ivanovic and Luka Modric, couldn't generate enough to threaten beyond Beljo's goal. Lamine Yamal's brace, combined with goals from Pubill and Nico Williams, made for a perfect night for Luis de la Fuente in Seville.