Arsenal hosts Everton as clear favorite, under pressure to keep pace with City

Six wins in seven matches and just one defeat: that's the form Arsenal brings into the Emirates Stadium to host Everton in the Premier League. Mikel Arteta's side sitting second is no accident, but the gap to leaders Manchester City already stands at eight points, so every slip-up carries weight.

Arsenal have collected 18 points out of a possible 21 so far this season, with 11 goals scored and just 5 conceded. Over their last five matches they've racked up three wins, a draw and a defeat, closing out that run with a draw that raised some questions, though the overall level remains solid. At home in this Premier League campaign, based on a sample of just three matches, the team averages 2.333 goals scored per game and only 0.677 conceded, with clean sheets in 33 percent of those matches and a tendency to score between the 16th and 30th minutes. In that same sample, Bukayo Saka leads the scoring charts with three goals, followed by Bruno Guimarães and Martin Ødegaard with two apiece.

Everton, meanwhile, sit in eighth place with 10 points from seven matches played (2 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat), with 8 goals scored and 7 conceded. The inconsistency shows in their recent form: two wins, two draws and a defeat in their last five matches, with a loss as the final note before this trip to London. As visitors in this Premier League season, over a sample of three matches, David Moyes' side averages 1.003 goals scored and 1.003 conceded, with clean sheets in 33 percent of those games and their most productive stretch coming between the 46th and 60th minutes. Thierno Barry tops that sample with three goals, ahead of Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall with two.

The head-to-head history doesn't offer much hope for the visitors either: of eight matches played, Arsenal have won five, two ended in draws and Everton have won just once, with the Londoners holding an 11-3 aggregate goal advantage over the Merseyside club.

Possible lineups

For Arsenal, the projected lineup (flagged as low reliability based on recent data) would include David Raya in goal, a back line of Gabriel Magalhães, Ezri Konsa, Riccardo Calafiori and Jurriën Timber, a double pivot of Declan Rice and Bruno Guimarães, Martin Ødegaard pushed further forward, and an attacking trio of Kai Havertz, Bukayo Saka and Noni Madueke.

Everton, with a projected lineup carrying higher reliability, would once again start Jordan Pickford between the posts, a back line of James Tarkowski, Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Vitalii Mykolenko and Jarrad Branthwaite, a midfield of Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, James Garner, Harrison Armstrong, Jack Grealish and Brennan Johnson, with Thierno Barry leading the line up top.

What the numbers say

Our model shows a clear, though not overwhelming, edge for Arsenal:

Expected goals back up that gap as well: 1.68 for Arsenal against 0.61 for Everton, for an estimated total of 2.29 goals in the match. Add to that a 67 percent probability of over 2.5 goals and another 67 percent chance of both teams scoring. It's worth noting this is our own estimate drawn from the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast.

With City out in front on the table and Everton looking to shake off their inconsistency, Arsenal have every reason to avoid giving up more ground at the top. The Emirates Stadium will put to the test whether that edge on paper translates into a result on the scoreboard.