Atalanta blows two-goal lead twice, settles for wild 4-4 draw with Frosinone

It started with a goal in the first minute and ended 4-4. In between there were leads for both sides, a penalty, a VAR review, and even a start to the second half that looked decisive but wasn't. Atalanta and Frosinone played out an eight-goal draw at New Balance Arena in Serie A, and the result leaves more questions than answers for Maurizio Sarri's side.

Frosinone, managed by Massimiliano Alvini, jumped on the hosts early: just seconds after kickoff, Romano Schmid finished from the center of the box to make it 0-1. Atalanta answered quickly with a counterattack that ended in a shot from Nikola Krstovic, assisted by Charles De Ketelaere, leveling it at 1-1 in the 13th minute. But Schmid struck again three minutes later, this time set up by Farès Ghedjemis, to restore the visitors' lead: 1-2.

The first half had more twists in store. In the 28th minute, a handball by Giorgio Cittadini inside the box went to VAR review and was ruled a penalty. Éderson converted to make it 2-2 in the 32nd minute. And just when it looked like the teams would go into the break level, Krstovic struck again, this time with a header off a Davide Zappacosta cross, putting Atalanta up 3-2 right before halftime.

The second half opened up even crazier. Two minutes after the restart, Giacomo Calò, set up by another Ghedjemis assist, made it 3-3. But just two minutes after that, Eljif Elmas, fed by Krstovic, put Atalanta back in front with a shot into the top corner: 4-3 in the 49th minute. Things settled down a bit from there, but Frosinone refused to fold, and with about nine minutes left, Aleksa Terzic sealed the final 4-4 with an assist, once again, from Ghedjemis, who finished the night with three assists.

What the numbers say

The final score was no fluke in terms of chances created: Atalanta edged the possession battle by a narrow margin in Frosinone's favor, but it was the home side that generated the more dangerous chances by our expected goals estimate, with 4.33 against the visitors' 1.59, calculated from the match's shots. That big a gap relative to the final score speaks to Frosinone's clinical finishing and to some defensive fragility from Atalanta despite creating more.

Before the match, our model gave Atalanta a 57% chance of winning, with just 18% for a Frosinone victory and 25% for a draw. We also projected a combined total of 2.84 goals between the two sides. Reality nearly tripled that figure, with eight goals scored overall, and the final outcome ended up being the least likely of the three scenarios: the draw. Atalanta had the match in hand more than once, leading at three separate points in the game, but couldn't hold on.

What the result means

In the standings, the draw doesn't shift the immediate picture all that much: Atalanta remains in the lower half of the table with 10 points through eight matches, while Frosinone moves to 14, now sitting 4 points clear of tonight's opponent. For a team like Atalanta, which needed all three points, letting two separate two-goal leads slip away (1-3 and then the 4-3 that also wasn't enough) is the most painful part of a night that was anything but boring going forward.