Atletico Madrid grinds past Malaga 2-0 at the Metropolitano thanks to Lee Kang-In and Baena strikes

Atletico Madrid beat Malaga 2-0 at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano in a LaLiga matchup that stayed tight well into the second half. A stunning strike from outside the box by Lee Kang-In and a direct free kick from Alex Baena, both arriving in the final half hour, settled a game in which the home side dominated but struggled mightily to break down a well organized Malaga defense.

A scoreless first half full of stoppages

The match opened at a choppy pace, marked by constant fouls from both sides and several injury stoppages. Atletico created the first real chances through Rodrigo Mendoza, who tested the Malaga goal in the 24th minute and again in the 34th without success, while Malaga answered with a shot from David Larrubia that narrowly missed the target in the 12th minute and another attempt from Rafita in the 32nd. The first half ended 0-0, with Dvid Hancko picking up a yellow card and no team having asserted clear control despite Atletico's edge in possession.

The second half began with three simultaneous substitutions from Atletico, who brought on Alex Baena, Lee Kang-In and Giuliano Simeone to freshen up the attack. The move paid off gradually: first a Lee Kang-In effort that went wide in the 58th minute, then a shot from him that was blocked in the 63rd, and a Hancko header that crashed off the crossbar in the 74th minute, following a Baena corner delivery. Malaga, for its part, barely threatened, with attempts from Chupe and Rafa Rodriguez failing to hit the target.

How the deadlock broke

Malaga's resistance finally cracked in the 69th minute, when Lee Kang-In struck a left footed shot from outside the area that curled into the top corner, assisted by Hancko. With Malaga forced to push forward and expose itself, Atletico sealed the win in the 84th minute with a superb direct free kick from Alex Baena, also finding the top corner, making it 2-0 for good. In stoppage time, David Larrubia tried his luck again without success, in a late attempt to pull one back.

The numbers back up the home side's control

The statistics clearly reflect the home team's superiority across the 90 minutes, though they also help explain why the goal proved so elusive for so long.

According to our post match xG estimate based on the shots taken in the game, Atletico generated 1.262 expected goals against just 0.351 for Malaga, a gap that confirms the home side's greater attacking volume, even though the scoreline took a long time to reflect it.

What was projected and what happened

The preview published ahead of the match gave the home side a 65% chance of winning, with a 23% probability of a draw and 12% for a Malaga victory, with expected goals of 1.92 for Atletico and 0.71 for Malaga. The final result ended up matching that forecast in terms of the winner, though the path there was rockier than expected: the home side needed nearly an hour and a half of play to break the deadlock, a delay the expected goals projection did not really anticipate.

What the match leaves behind

With this result, Atletico Madrid moves to 3 points after its first match played, while Malaga remains without points following its first defeat of the competition. The points gap between the two sides in the standings stands at 3. The goals from Lee Kang-In and Baena, both scored from outside the box or from a dead ball situation, ended up being the difference in a match where the home side's dominance was evident, but the finishing touch held out until the closing stretch.