Atlético beat Real Madrid 2-1 in derby marked by two overturned red cards and Huijsen's expulsion

Two red cards overturned by VAR in the space of eleven minutes, a converted penalty and another goal inside a second half that turned into an uphill climb for Real Madrid: that's the story behind Atlético Madrid's 2-1 win at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano, a result that leaves the home side just a point behind their rival in the LaLiga standings.

The first half ended scoreless but not without drama. In the 35th minute, Cristian Romero was shown a straight red card for a foul on Jude Bellingham, but VAR reviewed the play two minutes later and the decision was reversed: it stayed a yellow. The match remained even after that, with Real Madrid getting the better chances in the opening twenty minutes through Aurélien Tchouaméni and Vinícius Júnior, though neither could find the net.

The second half unraveled in minutes

Right at the start of the second half, in the 48th minute, Dean Huijsen conceded a penalty for a foul on Giuliano Simeone inside the box. The referee showed a red card to the Real Madrid defender, but once again VAR stepped in: in the 50th minute, the expulsion was overturned. A minute later, though, Huijsen ended up seeing red anyway. With Real Madrid down to ten men, Alejandro Grimaldo made no mistake from the penalty spot to make it 1-0 in the 52nd minute.

The blow landed fast, and Atlético made the most of it. Six minutes later, in the 58th minute, Jonathan David finished from the middle of the box off a cross from Giuliano Simeone to make it 2-0. Diego Simeone's side controlled the game with the extra man and the lead on the scoreboard, and for much of the second half it kept generating danger through shots from Julián Álvarez, Dávid Hancko and Cristian Romero, none of which found the target.

Real Madrid, with Antonio Rüdiger and Yan Diomande already on the field after Mourinho's substitutions, pulled one back late: in the 88th minute, Rüdiger headed home a Bernardo Silva cross that originated from a foul, making it 2-1. There was no time for anything else, despite the six minutes of stoppage time that were played.

A dominant performance by the numbers

Atlético controlled the ball for much of the match and turned that into more scoring chances, something the stats reflect clearly.

Our own expected goals model backs up that control: Atlético generated 2.407 xG in the match, compared to just 0.454 for Real Madrid, a gap that confirms the home side's dominance wasn't just about possession.

The result, moreover, is quite far removed from what we projected before kickoff. Our model gave 36% odds of a home win, 26% for a draw and 38% for an away win, with expected goals split almost evenly (1.64 for Atlético and 1.66 for Real Madrid). The numerical advantage following the second expulsion ended up tipping the scales far more than we anticipated.

What the result means

With this result, Atlético Madrid reaches 16 points so far this season, with a record of 5 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 7 matches played, sitting second in the table. Real Madrid, for its part, has 15 points with 5 wins and 2 losses in the same number of matches, dropping to fourth. The gap between the two sides in the standings is just 1 point, something the match itself, decided by refereeing details and a decisive red card, ended up illustrating perfectly.