Augsburg storms back to hammer Eintracht Frankfurt 4-1 at Deutsche Bank Park

Eintracht Frankfurt went ahead after just five minutes, and everything pointed to a quiet afternoon at Deutsche Bank Park. It turned out to be the exact opposite: Augsburg took the match 4-1, flipping a scoreline that had them down at halftime, and left the home side with just one thought running through their heads: how do you lose a game like this after starting so well?

The opening goal came in a flash. In the 5th minute, Jonathan Burkardt headed home inside the box off a cross from Younes Ebnoutalib to make it 1-0. Eintracht kept pushing through the first half, with chances from Can Uzun, Ebnoutalib and Robin Koch failing to find the net, and carried that lead into the closing stages of the opening period. But right in stoppage time, in the 45th minute, an own goal from Elias Baum leveled things for Augsburg before the break.

The second-half storm

What happened after the tunnel was crushing for Eintracht. Barely a minute into the second half, in the 46th minute, Robin Fellhauer finished from point-blank range to make it 1-2. Augsburg, who up to that point had lived more off counterattacks than control of the game, found their sharpest weapon in that depth. In the 64th minute, Alexis Claude-Maurice, who had just come on as a substitute, struck from inside the box to make it 1-3 off an assist from Han-Noah Massengo. And to complete the rout, in the 88th minute, Fabian Rieder curled a direct free kick into the top corner for the final 1-4.

Eintracht threw everything at closing the gap in the final stretch, with Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab and Timothy Chandler already on the field after substitutions, but they couldn't trouble Finn Dahmen enough to make a difference.

Numbers that don't match the result

The odd part is that the stats tell a different story than the scoreboard. Eintracht dominated possession, took more shots on target and created more clear-cut chances, but it wasn't enough.

The xG calculated after the fact from the match's shots also backs up the home side's dominance: 2.431 for Eintracht against 1.54 for Augsburg. In other words, by this in-house estimate, the home team created more danger than they ultimately showed on the scoreboard, while the visitors were far more clinical with the little they had.

The contrast with what was projected before kickoff is even more striking. Our preview gave Eintracht Frankfurt a 54% chance of winning, against just 22% for Augsburg, with a 24% chance of a draw. The expected goals figures we had going in pointed to a tight match, with 1.96 for the home side and 1.19 for the visitors. None of that resembled what actually unfolded on the field: the favorite on paper ended up thrashed.

What it means in the standings

In the Bundesliga table, the gap between the two sides already stood at 5 points before this match, and the result only confirms where each club stands right now. Augsburg came in as leaders, with six points from two games played and unbeaten, while Eintracht Frankfurt had managed just one point over the same span. With only two matchdays played, the table still says little about each squad's true level, but today's match paints a clear picture on its own: Augsburg made the most of every chance that came their way, while Eintracht, despite holding more of the ball and creating more chances, couldn't hold on to the lead they'd built inside the first quarter hour.