Barcelona hosts a struggling Alaves as heavy favorites, numbers show

Barcelona leads LaLiga with 27 points and a goal difference of 29, and hosts Alaves this weekend at Spotify Camp Nou. The visitors sit seventh with 12 points. With 15 points separating the two sides in the table, the match looks like a measuring stick for Hans-Dieter Flick's team before the schedule gets tougher.

The most striking number for Barcelona is a 9-1-0 record in the league this season: 9 wins and just one loss in 10 matches, with 40 goals scored and only 11 conceded. That said, recent form tells a different story than the table suggests: over the last five matches, Barcelona has three wins and two losses, a sign the team hasn't been a steamroller in recent weeks. At home in LaLiga this season, across a sample of five matches, Barcelona is averaging 3.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, with clean sheets in 40% of those matches, and its most productive scoring window falls between the 16th and 30th minutes. Raphinha stands out as the top scorer in that home sample with 13 goals, followed by Lamine Yamal with 8 and Fermin Lopez with 4.

Alaves, for its part, has a more balanced record in the league: 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in 10 matches, with 14 goals scored and 11 conceded. The recent run hasn't helped: in their last five matches, they haven't won any, with two draws and three losses. On the road in LaLiga this season, across a sample of four matches, they're averaging just 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded, with clean sheets in 25% of those games, and their best offensive stretch comes late, between the 76th and 90th minutes. Lucas Boye is their top scorer in that sample with 5 goals, ahead of Mariano Diaz with 3.

A head-to-head record that clearly favors Barcelona

The history between the two clubs leaves little doubt either: in the 8 meetings on record, Barcelona has won 6, there's been 1 draw, and Alaves has won just once, with the Catalan side scoring 14 goals total against just 5 for the Basque club.

Probable lineups

Barcelona's likely starting eleven, based on recent matches, would have Joan Garcia in goal, with Pau Cubarsi, Gerard Martin, Joao Cancelo and Xavi Espart across the back line. In midfield, Rodri, Pedri and Fermin Lopez would appear, while up front the attack looks to feature Lamine Yamal, Anthony Gordon and Raphinha.

For Alaves, the projected lineup would have Antonio Sivera in net, with Nahuel Tenaglia, Abde Rebbach, Nicolas Valentini, Ville Koski, Angel Perez and Jonny Otto rounding out a crowded backline. In midfield, Pablo Ibanez and Antonio Blanco would pair up, with Lucas Boye and Toni Martinez leading the attack.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model gives Barcelona a wide edge in this matchup, though it's worth reading this as our own estimate rather than a betting line.

The expected goals figures from our model point in the same direction: 3.00 for Barcelona versus 0.92 for Alaves, a combined total of 3.92. Two more figures worth noting: a 65% chance the match goes over 2.5 goals, and a 75% chance both teams find the net.

With the top spot already secure and an opponent arriving with its confidence shaken, Barcelona has a clear chance here to keep padding its goal difference. The question is whether Alaves can make the most of that late-game window where it tends to show up, if only to make the final score look better.