Bayern Munich Rout Stuttgart 5-1 with Total Command at the Allianz Arena

Bayern Munich needed just twenty minutes to take the lead, and although Stuttgart hit back right at the start of the second half, the home side still ran out 5-1 winners at the Allianz Arena. The Bundesliga clash slipped away from Stuttgart in the space of just five second-half minutes, right when it looked like they had found the equalizer.

The first half was a Bavarian monologue that produced few rewards on the scoreboard. Michael Olise struck the post from a direct free kick in the 16th minute and threatened several more times, but the goal eventually came from a dead ball: in the 20th minute, Dayot Upamecano headed home a Joshua Kimmich corner. That 1-0 lead held until halftime, though Stuttgart had shown some spark of their own, including a Tiago Tomás effort that came off the crossbar in the 11th minute.

Five minutes that decided everything

The second half opened with a gut punch for Bayern: in the 51st minute, Josha Vagnoman leveled the score for Stuttgart with a shot from the center of the box. The equalizer didn't last long. Three minutes later, in the 54th, Michael Olise restored the home side's lead off a Kimmich assist, and just two minutes after that, in the 56th, Vagnoman himself turned the ball into his own net to make it 3-1. In the space of five minutes, the match went from uncertain to settled.

Bayern had a fourth goal ruled out by VAR in the 62nd minute, when Olise scored but review flagged an earlier infraction. It didn't matter: Aleksandar Pavlovic, assisted by Ismael Saibari, made it 4-1 in the 81st minute, and Luis Díaz capped the rout in stoppage time, in the 91st minute, also set up by Saibari.

The numbers back up the gap

The match stats confirm what was clear on the field: total Bayern dominance in both possession and clear-cut chances.

Based on those shot totals, our estimated xG for the match puts Bayern at 3.03 expected goals against 1.42 for Stuttgart, a gap that lines up with the six big chances created compared to just one for the visitors.

Heading into the match, our model gave Bayern a 73% chance of winning, with a 15% chance of a draw and 12% for a Stuttgart win, with expected goals of 3.10 for the home side and 1.27 for the visitors. The final score, 5-1, ended up even more lopsided than that projection, though the overall script, Bavarian dominance with a Stuttgart scare, played out pretty much as expected.

The win leaves Bayern with 3 points from one match played and a goal difference of +4, while Stuttgart remain pointless with a -4 mark, a gap of 3 points between the two sides in the standings after this opening round. It's still far too early to draw conclusions from the table, but the match at the Allianz Arena left a clear impression: when Bayern find their touch in the box, the gap with their opponents widens fast.