City look to right the ship in Champions League against a fast-striking AEK Athens

Manchester City arrive at this stage of the Champions League in a spot they are not used to occupying: 17th in the overall table, with just 3 points after two matchdays. Today's opponent, AEK Athens, sit one notch lower, in 20th, with the same points total but a worse goal difference. The meeting at the Etihad Stadium gives both sides a chance to correct a start that, for now, leaves neither of them comfortable in the standings.

City have one win and one loss in the competition, with 4 goals scored and 4 conceded. The recent picture, though, is more encouraging: over their last five matches in all competitions they have four wins and just one defeat. The most eye catching number comes from a smaller sample, their two Champions League matches this season, in which Erling Haaland has already scored four goals and the team has kept a clean sheet in half of those games.

On the other side, AEK Athens also have one win and one loss in the tournament, with 2 goals scored and 3 conceded. Over their last five matches they show three wins, a draw and a loss, a run of form that suggests they will not show up fully resigned to their fate despite the gap in budget and history with today's opponent. In that same two-game Champions League sample this season, the Greek side have split their goals between two names, Lovro Majer and Razvan Marin, and tend to find the net early, in the 16th to 30th minute window.

Probable lineups

With reliability marked as low, City's projected XI would keep Gianluigi Donnarumma in goal, a back line of Ruben Dias, Marc Guehi, Matheus Nunes and Nico O'Reilly, a midfield of Rayan Cherki, Elliot Anderson, Antoine Semenyo, Enzo Fernandez and Iliman Ndiaye, with Haaland leading the line up front.

AEK, with medium reliability in their projection, would field Alberto Brignoli in goal, a back four of Filipe Relvas, Stavros Pilios, Harold Moukoudi and Lazaros Rota, a double pivot of Razvan Marin and Lovro Majer, Milan Vitalis and Aboubakary Koita further up, and Luka Jovic as the out and out striker.

What the numbers say

Our model gives a clear edge to City in this match, though it does not rule out the Greek side entirely:

The expected goals figures from our model point the same way: 2.08 for City against 0.86 for AEK, for an estimated total of 2.94 in the match. These are our own figures, a projection rather than a betting line, but they make clear that City start out as the strongest favorite among the three possible outcomes, without ruling out a draw.

With both sides needing points to climb the table, the match at the Etihad promises to be demanding from the opening whistle. City will look to lean on home advantage and Haaland's recent sharpness in front of goal, while AEK will try to use their knack for striking early to take something away from Manchester.