Man City survive Brobbey hat trick, edge Sunderland 5-3 in Etihad thriller

It took Enzo Fernandez just eight minutes to make it 1-0 with a direct free kick into the top corner, and only three more for Brian Brobbey to level for Sunderland. What looked like it might be a quiet afternoon for Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium turned into a goal fest that finished 5-3, with Brobbey completing a hat trick and Sunderland holding out far longer than expected in the Premier League.

The game blew wide open in the first half hour. After the early back and forth, Rayan Cherki put the home side back in front in the 28th minute with an assist from Antoine Semenyo, but Brobbey drew Sunderland level again four minutes later with a goal that needed a VAR check before it stood. Semenyo himself restored City's lead right before the break, in the 42nd minute, finishing off a corner delivered by Marc Guehi, and the first half closed with a lopsided 3-2.

The second half picked up right where the first left off. Semenyo grabbed his second of the day in the 56th minute to make it 4-2, but Sunderland refused to fold: two minutes later Brobbey completed his hat trick from close range to make it 4-3 and put real doubt into the Etihad. City had to wait until the 80th minute to finally put the game away, when Erling Haaland finished off a ball inside the box assisted by Josko Gvardiol. That goal also went to VAR before the final 5-3 was confirmed.

A match closer than the scoreline suggests

The stats tell a different story than a dominant City performance. Sunderland had more shots, more shots on target and, above all, more clear-cut chances.

That imbalance also shows up in the xG we calculated from the match's shots: 2.534 for Manchester City against 4.123 for Sunderland. It's our own estimate made after the final whistle, not a prediction, but it makes clear that the visitors created more real danger than the final result would suggest.

That number is a sharp contrast to what we had projected beforehand. We gave Manchester City a 71% chance of winning, with just 8% for Sunderland and 21% for a draw, and we expected a comfortable scoreline of 2 expected goals for the home side against 0.56 for the visitors. Reality played out differently: eight total goals, three of them from Sunderland, and a match decided by specific moments (Enzo Fernandez's free kick, Haaland's late finish) rather than the kind of superiority we had anticipated.

What the result means

Manchester City arrive at this result as league leaders with 15 points from five games, with no losses or draws, adding another win despite the scare. Sunderland, meanwhile, sit on 4 points from the same number of matches, with a record of one win, one draw and three losses. The gap between the two sides in the table stands at 11 points, a gulf that Sunday's scoreline didn't fully reflect in terms of intensity and chances created.

For Sunderland, the consolation lies in Brobbey's individual performance, scorer of all three visiting goals, and in a match where, result aside, they matched City in terms of chances created and dangerous moments. For City, the takeaway is that they won without controlling the game the way their usual numbers would suggest, and had to wait until the final stretch to close it out through Haaland.