Como grinds out tight 1-0 win over Venezia despite total control

A single goal, a penalty converted right before the break, was all Como needed to take all three points against Venezia at the Giuseppe Sinigaglia. The final score, 1-0, barely tells the story of what was a complete home-side rout: 19 shots to 7, and possession of 65.7% that left Venezia with almost no ball for long stretches of the afternoon.

The match, part of Serie A, saw Como camp out in their opponent's half from the first minute. Tasos Douvikas tested the keeper early, Kaiki had a header chance that went over the bar, and Martin Baturina kept probing around the Venezia box with several attempts that didn't find the target. Venezia, for their part, were content to soak up pressure and look for the odd counterattack.

The first real talking point came in the 27th minute, when the VAR reviewed a possible penalty for Venezia and ultimately waved it off. It turned out to be just a preview of what was coming: in the 40th minute, Juan Jesus brought down Douvikas inside the box and was booked for the foul. Two minutes later, Lucas da Cunha stepped up and curled his left-footed effort into the top corner to make it 1-0, the only goal Como would need all afternoon.

A dominant display that couldn't find a second

In the second half, Como continued to dictate the pace. Samuele Ricci, Nico Paz and Baturina kept trying their luck from outside the box without success, while Venezia, having brought on Kike Perez, John Yeboah and Toma Basic, tried to create some danger with long-range efforts that didn't really trouble the home goalkeeper. Davide Nicola's side managed just a single shot on target the entire match, a clear sign of how little they were able to build against a defense that was rarely tested.

The numbers sum up the game pretty well:

The post-match xG figures, calculated from the shots taken, reflect that same gap: 1.59 for Como compared to just 0.24 for Venezia. Those numbers point to near-total control of the attacking play, though the final score ended up tighter than those figures would suggest.

Ahead of the match, we had projected a Como win with 72% probability, against 19% for a draw and just 9% for a Venezia win, with expected goals of 2.34 for the home side and 0.74 for Venezia, a combined total of 3.08. The actual result fell well short of that offensive projection: Como won, as expected, but the final 1-0 was a far cry from a forecast that pointed to a much higher-scoring game.

What it means in the standings

With this result, Como move to 23 points from 10 games played, with a record of 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, putting them fourth in the table. Venezia, meanwhile, remain bottom with just 3 points from 10 games, the product of 1 win, no draws and 9 losses. The gap between the two sides in the standings now stands at 20 points, a gulf that Sunday's match did nothing but confirm on the field.