Eintracht Frankfurt rallies past Hamburger SV 3-1 with lethal counterattack

An own goal in the ninth minute and a lethal counterattack late on were enough for Eintracht Frankfurt to walk away with all three points: 3-1 over Hamburger SV at Deutsche Bank Park, in a Bundesliga match the home side had to come from behind to win after conceding an equalizer almost immediately.

The start was dizzying. Just nine minutes in, Warmed Omari put the ball into his own net to put Eintracht Frankfurt ahead before Hamburger SV could even settle into the game. The home side's joy didn't last long: four minutes later, Terem Moffi finished from close range with his left foot, low into the net, after an assist from Albert Gronbaek, leveling the score at 1-1 before the quarter-hour mark.

That equalizer held until halftime, but the second half picked up right where the first had left off: moments after the restart, in the 46th minute, Raphael Onyedika popped up to head home with his left foot from the center of the goal off a corner kick, putting Eintracht Frankfurt back in front, 2-1.

The match had a tense moment in the 61st minute when Fares Chaibi thought he had scored a third, but VAR overturned the goal, with the decision confirmed a minute later: the score stayed at 2-1. Hamburger SV turned to its bench looking for a response, but it was Eintracht Frankfurt that struck again: in the 68th minute, Younes Ebnoutalib finished with his left foot from the center of the box, into the top corner, after a through ball from Can Uzun on the counterattack. That 3-1 scoreline held firm, even as Hamburger SV pressed until the final whistle, including a Warmed Omari shot that crashed off the crossbar in stoppage time.

What the numbers say

Eintracht Frankfurt's dominance shows up more in precision than possession, which ended up fairly even. The difference came down to accuracy: ten shots on target compared to just three for Hamburger SV.

Based on our estimate calculated from the match's shots, Eintracht Frankfurt generated 2.228 expected goals compared to 1.521 for Hamburger SV, a gap that backs up the final result even though the scoreline stayed open for much of the match.

What we had projected

Heading into the match, our model gave Eintracht Frankfurt a 56% chance of winning, against 23% for a draw and 21% for an away win, with expected goals of 2.16 for the home side and 1.31 for Hamburger SV. The final result, 3-1, lined up with that forecast: the favorite won, though it had to come back from conceding a goal that wasn't part of the original script.

What the match means in the standings

Before this match, Eintracht Frankfurt sat in eighth place with 11 points so far this season, while Hamburger SV was in 15th with 9 points, separated by just 2 points. With this result, Eintracht Frankfurt builds a case for climbing further up the table, while Hamburger SV, which carries a negative goal difference in the standings, will need to fix the defensive fragility that once again proved costly at Deutsche Bank Park.