Everton grind out narrow win as Barry strike and Ipswich red card seal 1-0

It took Everton just ten minutes to put themselves on course for a win that ended up being tougher than expected. Thierno Barry connected with a shot from the middle of the box, off an assist from James Tarkowski, to make it 1-0, and that scoreline never changed, even though Barry had a second goal ruled out later by VAR. In the end, Everton took all three points at Hill Dickinson Stadium against an Ipswich Town side that played more than half the match with ten men.

The match, part of the Premier League schedule, started with Everton pushing forward from the opening whistle. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and Brennan Johnson both tested the target with shots that went just wide, but it was Ipswich Town who created the clearer chance before the goal, with a shot from Emersonn that Jordan Pickford saved low down. The home side made no mistake on their next chance: in the 10th minute, Barry finished off Tarkowski's pass to make it 1-0.

Ipswich Town didn't sit back and responded with attempts from Julio Enciso and Abdul Fatawu, both of which were also denied by Pickford. Everton, for their part, kept piling up chances without adding to the lead: Dewsbury-Hall, Vitalii Mykolenko, James Garner and Barry himself all had tries before halftime, with the score standing at 1-0 at the break.

The goal that wasn't and the red card that changed the game

At the start of the second half, Everton thought they had put the game away. In the 57th minute, Barry found the net again, but a VAR review ruled it out for offside by Brennan Johnson in the buildup, confirmed a minute later. The score stayed at 1-0 and the match remained open.

What did end up tipping the balance was Abdul Fatawu's red card in the 66th minute, shown for a second yellow after a dive. Down to ten men, Ipswich Town lost attacking punch despite the changes their manager made, including the introductions of Jaden Philogene, Chuba Akpom and Zian Flemming, who searched unsuccessfully for an equalizer in the closing stages, including a lengthy seven minutes of stoppage time in which Flemming picked up a yellow card and then fired over the bar on the game's last clear chance.

What the numbers say

Everton controlled the run of play and produced the more dangerous chances, though they didn't convert that edge into clinical finishing: just two of their 21 shots were on target, compared to four for Ipswich Town from fewer total attempts.

The xG generated in the match, calculated after the fact based on shot locations, backs up that dominance: 2.508 for Everton versus 1.206 for Ipswich Town, a bigger gap than the final score ultimately showed.

Before kickoff, our projection gave Everton a 62% chance of winning, with a 24% chance of a draw and a 14% chance of an Ipswich Town win, with expected goals of 1.97 for the home side and 0.86 for the visitors. The final result, a tight 1-0, ended up closer to the script we anticipated than to the offensive showcase those numbers suggested, though the scoreline undersold the real control that David Moyes' side had over the match.

With this result, Everton moved to 9 points from 5 games played, with 2 wins and 3 draws, still unbeaten this season. Ipswich Town, managed by Gary O'Neil, stayed on 6 points with 2 wins and 3 losses, and a negative goal difference that reflects the team's struggles to see out matches like this one, where the red card ended up outweighing every other factor.