Winless and leaking goals, Gladbach host a Mainz side that arrives as the favorite

Twelve goals conceded in three matches. That number, more than any other, sums up the state of Borussia Mönchengladbach ahead of hosting 1. FSV Mainz 05 at the ista-Borussia-Park in the Bundesliga. Gladbach are the only club in the league, alongside Hamburg, still on zero points: three losses in three matches and a goal difference of minus nine leave them 17th in the table.

Jan-Moritz Lichte's side have three defeats and three goals scored against twelve conceded so far this Bundesliga campaign. Zooming in on the shorter five-game sample tells a slightly different story: two wins and three losses, with those two wins coming early in the run and a free fall in the three most recent matches. Mainz, by contrast, are holding steady in mid-table: one win, one draw and one loss in the league, with six goals scored and three conceded, sitting eighth, just four points above the home side despite the gap that separates the two clubs in the overall standings. Over their last five matches, Urs Fischer's team have picked up three wins, one draw and one loss, recent form that backs up their role as the slight favorite in this matchup.

It's worth separating those numbers from another set found in the season data: across three Bundesliga matches, home and away combined, Gladbach average one goal scored per game and four conceded, without a single clean sheet, and their most productive scoring window comes in the first 15 minutes. Hugo Bolin and Joe Scally show up as the top scorers in that sample. Mainz, for their part, average two goals scored and one conceded, with clean sheets in 67% of their matches, and their most dangerous stretch comes between the 76th and 90th minutes; there, Phillip Tietz leads with three goals, with Sheraldo Becker and Phillipp Mwene adding one apiece.

The head-to-head record doesn't favor the hosts either: in eight meetings, Mainz have won two and Gladbach just one, with five draws in between. In terms of goals, it's 11 to 8 in favor of the visitors.

Probable lineups

For Gladbach, the projected lineup (medium reliability, since it's drawn from recent matches) would see Moritz Nicolas in goal, a back line of Kevin Diks, Joe Scally, Lukas Ullrich and Ko Itakura, a midfield of Philipp Sander, Kevin Stöger, Wael Mohya, Robin Hack and Franck Honorat, and Hugo Bolin leading the attack.

Mainz, with the same caveat that this is a probable lineup, would field Robin Zentner between the posts, Stefan Posch, Fabio Gruber and Dominik Kohr in defense, Phillipp Mwene, Nadiem Amiri, Kaishu Sano, Anthony Caci and Lee Jae-Sung in midfield, and a forward pairing of Sheraldo Becker and Phillip Tietz.

What the numbers say

Our model, based on this season's trends, produces fairly tight odds when you consider that Gladbach haven't won a single match in the league:

Mainz show up as favorites, but without an overwhelming edge: 41% against Gladbach's 31%, and a 28% chance of a draw leaves plenty of room for any outcome. This is our own estimate, not a betting line. The expected goals projection, 1.26 for the home side and 1.47 for the visitors, for a combined 2.73, lines up with another figure from our trends: the probability of over 2.5 goals in the match reaches 83%, while the chance of both teams scoring sits at a modest 22%.

With those numbers on the table, Gladbach need to snap a losing streak that has left them without a single point, while Mainz arrive with a chance to settle into mid-table. The ista-Borussia-Park will have the final say.