Inter look to rebound in Champions League against red-hot Shakhtar

Inter arrive at this matchup sitting at the bottom of the overall Champions League table, having lost both of their opening two games, and need a win by any means necessary. Standing across from them will be a Shakhtar Donetsk side riding a wave of momentum: a win and a draw in the tournament, plus five straight victories in their last five matches overall. That contrast in form is the big storyline heading into kickoff at the Giuseppe Meazza.

Inter's numbers in the competition are worrying: 0 points out of a possible 6, with 4 goals scored and 6 conceded across their two outings, leaving them in 29th place in the overall standings. Still, over their last five matches across all competitions the picture looks different: three wins, one draw and just one loss, a run that suggests Cristian Chivu's side may be finding its rhythm right when it's needed most. In this season's Champions League, home and away combined, Inter have yet to keep a clean sheet (0% in that sample), and their most productive scoring window has come between the 76th and 90th minutes, with Lautaro Martinez their top attacking threat on 2 goals, followed by Carlos Augusto and Ange-Yoan Bonny with one each.

Shakhtar, meanwhile, sit in 12th place with 4 points, built on a win and a draw, still unbeaten in the tournament, with 4 goals scored against 2 allowed. Their streak of five consecutive wins in their last five matches makes them an uncomfortable visitor for anyone. Across the same home and away Champions League sample this season, they too have failed to post a clean sheet (0%), and they tend to find the net in the first half, between the 31st and 45th minutes; Gleiker Mendoza is their top scorer with 2 goals, joined by Pedrinho and Vinicius Tobias with one apiece.

History clearly favors one side

The head-to-head record strongly favors Inter: in 5 previous meetings, the Italian club won 2, drew 3 and have never lost to Shakhtar, outscoring them 7 to 0 overall. That's a track record that carries weight, though it won't decide this match on its own.

Projected lineups

For Inter, the projected lineup (medium confidence) would feature Josep Martinez in goal; a back three of Bastoni, Bisseck and Akanji; Barella, Diouf, Zielinski, Dimarco and Calhanoglu in midfield; and Thuram alongside Esposito up front. For Shakhtar, with lower confidence in the projection, the expected XI includes Riznyk between the posts; a back line of Bondar, Tobias, Matviienko, Pedro Henrique and Karavaiev; and a midfield of Kryskiv, Marlon Gomes, Ocheretko, Newerton and Alisson Santana.

What the odds say

Our model gives Inter a slight edge as the home side, though neither team is far out of it: the numbers are fairly evenly split.

Our model's expected goals figures (an in-house estimate) point to 1.74 for Inter against 1.24 for Shakhtar, for a projected total of 2.98, suggesting a match with scoring chances for both sides. It's worth noting this is an internal projection and not a betting line.

With Inter desperate for points after a scoreless start and a Shakhtar side emboldened by their winning streak, the Meazza has all the makings of a tight contest on paper, though recent history between the two clubs and home field advantage tip the scales toward the hosts.