Levante hosts an unstoppable Atlético Madrid, who carry 58% favoritism

The Ciutat de Valencia hosts a matchup of total contrasts: Levante, stuck in the lower half of the table, against an Atlético Madrid side sitting second and breathing down the neck of the title race. Playing at home, the granotas need points almost urgently, but across from them stands one of the sturdiest teams in LaLiga.

Levante sits in 14th place with a record of 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in 10 matches, with 16 goals scored and 19 allowed. Over its last five matches it has managed just one win, two draws and two losses, an uneven stretch that has kept it far from the calmer waters of the table. Atlético, on the other hand, is second with 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in the same number of matches, with a goal difference of 12 (20 scored, 8 allowed). The gap between the two sides in the standings is 15 points. Over its last five matches, Diego Simeone's side has won four and drawn one, with no losses.

There's an interesting detail worth laying out carefully: playing at home this LaLiga season, Levante has averaged 3.25 goals scored and 2.5 allowed over its last 4 matches in that setting, without a single clean sheet, and tends to score more between the 76th and 90th minutes. Roger Brugué stands out as its top scorer in that stretch with 5 goals, followed by Iván Romero with 3. Atlético, meanwhile, as a visitor this season, averages 1.8 goals scored and just 1 allowed over 5 matches, with a 40% clean sheet rate, and also tends to show up more in the closing minutes of each half. Álex Baena leads that sample with 5 goals.

The head to head history doesn't favor Levante either: in 8 previous meetings, Atlético has won 3, there have been 3 draws and Levante has won 2, with Atlético outscoring Levante 9 to 7 overall.

The probable lineups

For Levante, the projected lineup has Mathew Ryan in goal, a back line with Manu Sánchez, Ifeanyi Ndukwe, Aïssa Mandi, Jeremy Toljan and Adrián de la Fuente, a midfield of Roger Brugué, Jon Ander Olasagasti, Thiago Fernández and Dani Requena, with Iván Romero up top. This is an estimated lineup of medium reliability, drawn from recent matches.

Atlético Madrid, also on a probable basis, would line up with Jan Oblak in goal, a back line of Alejandro Grimaldo, Marcos Llorente, Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill and Cristian Romero, Pablo Barrios, Giuliano Simeone and Álex Baena in midfield, and Lee Kang-In alongside Jonathan David up front.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model gives a clear edge to Atlético, though not an overwhelming one. Here's how the probabilities break down:

Expected goals also show a gap: 1.08 for Levante against 2.02 for Atlético, for an estimated total of 3.09. These are figures from our own model, not betting odds, but they point clearly in one direction: there's more room for Atlético to pick up the win than for a home upset, though the draw still carries real weight in the breakdown. On top of that, our trends calculate a 90% probability that the match goes over 2.5 goals and an 80% chance that both teams score, which fits the attacking yet leaky profile Levante has shown this year.

With all of that on the table, the Ciutat de Valencia has the makings of a match with goals at both ends, even if the favorite on paper arrives with momentum firmly on its side.