Liverpool, perfect record intact, host a Villarreal side searching for answers in the Champions League

Anfield opens its doors for another matchday in the Champions League league phase, and Liverpool arrive with a perfect record: two games, two wins. Villarreal, on the other hand, enter with a tighter ledger, looking for their second win of the tournament. It is not just any game on the table, but it is not a win-or-bust clash either: this is the league phase, and what is at stake today is mostly positioning for the rounds ahead.

Liverpool, managed by Andoni Iraola, have played two games in the competition and won both, scoring 8 goals and conceding 4. Across their last five matches in all competitions, they have four wins and one loss, with recent results keeping them in good form. Villarreal, with Inigo Perez on the touchline, have a record in the tournament of one win and one loss from two games, with 5 goals scored and 4 conceded. Over their last five fixtures they have three wins, one draw and one loss, a recent run that is somewhat more uneven than their opponent's.

In the league phase standings, both sides have played two matches: Liverpool sit fifth with 6 points, while Villarreal are 14th with 3 points. The gap between them in the table is 3 points. It is worth remembering that with only two matchdays played, these positions still say little about the real level of each squad.

One note worth mentioning separately, without tying it to the competition standings: across a sample of just two games played home and away in this 2026 Champions League, neither team kept a clean sheet, and both found their best scoring stretch between the 16th and 30th minutes. In that same sample, Bradley Barcola stands out as Liverpool's top attacking threat with 3 goals, while Santiago Mourino leads Villarreal's list with 2.

What the head-to-head record says

The head-to-head record between the two sides spans 4 matches, clearly in Liverpool's favor: 3 wins for the Anfield side, no draws and just 1 win for Villarreal, with an overall goal difference of 8 for the English club against 3 for the Spanish side.

Possible lineups

For Liverpool, the likely lineup (estimated from recent matches, unconfirmed) would have Alisson Becker in goal, with Ronald Araujo, Jeremy Jacquet, Milos Kerkez and Virgil van Dijk across the back, a midfield of Bradley Barcola, Florian Wirtz, Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai and Victor Munoz, and Alexander Isak leading the attack. For Villarreal, the probable XI would feature Peter Gulacsi in goal, a back line of Pau Navarro, Renato Veiga, Sergi Cardona and Alex Freeman, a midfield of Santi Comesana, Ilias Akhomach, Pape Gueye and Nathan Saliba, and Alberto Moleiro and Ayoze Perez up front. In both cases, the reliability of these lineups is low: they are projections, not official confirmations.

What the numbers say

Our model gives Liverpool a clear, though not overwhelming, edge in this Anfield matchup.

Expected goals, another of our own estimates, project 2.30 for Liverpool and 1.18 for Villarreal, a combined total of 3.48 that points to a game with chances at both ends. These are figures from our model, not a bookmaker's odds or a definitive forecast.

With Liverpool unbeaten in the competition and Villarreal needing points to avoid falling further behind in the standings, Anfield has all the ingredients for an entertaining match, even if the numbers suggest the home side goes in as the favorite.