Newcastle Looks to Right the Ship Against Unbeaten Hull City at St. James' Park

Newcastle United sit fifth from bottom with just five points from four matchdays, and now host a Hull City side at St. James' Park that arrives in fourth place without having lost a single Premier League match. On paper, this looks like a clash between a team searching for answers and another that has surprised everyone this season.

Matthias Jaissle's side has posted one win, two draws and a loss in the league so far, scoring 7 goals and conceding 8. The recent picture, though, looks a bit better: over their last five matches they picked up three wins, one draw and one loss, including a defeat in their most recent outing that snapped a positive run. In the 2026 Premier League season, whether at home or away, Newcastle averages 1.75 goals scored and 2 conceded per match, with clean sheets in just 25 percent of games, and they tend to be most dangerous between the 61st and 75th minutes. Anthony Elanga leads the scoring charts for them in that sample with two goals, followed by Joe Willock and Jacob Ramsey with one apiece.

Standing in their way is a Hull City side that has yet to lose this season: two wins and two draws have been enough to bank 8 points and hold onto fourth place, with 5 goals scored and just 2 allowed. Worth noting, though, is the more immediate form: over their last five matches the English side has managed just one win, three draws and one loss, a run of stalemates that tempers some of the enthusiasm around their table position. In that same broad sample from the 2026 Premier League season, Hull averages 1.25 goals scored and just 0.5 conceded per match, with an impressive 75 percent clean sheet rate and a tendency to strike early, between the 16th and 30th minutes. Mohamed Belloumi is their top scorer in that stretch with two goals.

What the History Says

The two sides have met seven times, with the edge going to Newcastle: two wins apiece, with three draws in between. Newcastle also leads in goals scored across those meetings, 14 to Hull's 10, a history that suggests these two clubs tend to produce games with goals when they meet.

Likely Lineups

With medium reliability, Newcastle would line up with Lukas Hornicek in goal, a back line of Lewis Hall, Sven Botman, Amar Dedic and Malick Thiaw, and a midfield of Yoane Wissa, Harvey Barnes, Lewis Miley, Nico Gonzalez, Joe Willock and Jacob Murphy, based on their recent matches.

Hull, with a lower estimated reliability, would likely field Konstantinos Tzolakis in goal, a defense of Lewie Coyle, Nobel Mendy, John Egan, Semi Ajayi and Ryan Giles, a midfield of Elliot Stroud, Regan Slater, Mohamed Belloumi and Matt Crooks, with Oliver McBurnie leading the line up front.

What the Model Says

Our in-house projection, built on this season's trends, gives a clear edge to the home side:

Expected goals also tilt in Newcastle's favor: 2.46 for Newcastle against 0.81 for Hull, for a combined total of 3.27. On top of that, the probability of over 2.5 goals sits at 50 percent and the chance of both teams scoring at 75 percent, according to our own projections. Worth clarifying: this isn't a definitive prediction or a betting line, just a reading based on the available numbers.

With a Newcastle side that needs to respond at home and an unbeaten Hull City looking to test that defensive fragility away from St. James' Park, the Premier League once again pits two very different season narratives against each other.