Palmeiras survives scare, loses 0-1 but advances to Copa Libertadores final on penalties

Hercules made it 0-1 in the 81st minute with a strike from outside the box, seemingly putting Palmeiras in a tough spot at Nubank Parque. But soccer, especially in the Copa Libertadores, has other ways of writing its own story: Palmeiras ended up advancing to the final after winning 5-3 in the penalty shootout, following a 90 minutes that closed 0-1 in Fluminense's favor. The match result settled nothing; everything came down to the spot kicks.

The tie was a semifinal matchup that arrived after a first leg that had left everything open: Palmeiras came in after winning 2-1 on the road in the previous match of this same series, while Fluminense had fallen 1-2 at home. With that history, today's result sent the series to penalties.

A tight match that broke open late

For much of the match, Palmeiras controlled possession without that translating into clear chances. The Brazilian side, playing at home, piled up opportunities but kept running into a lack of precision: Alexander Barboza, Agustin Giay, Marlon Freitas and Joaquin Piquerez all tried their luck from outside the box without success in the first half, and the match stayed scoreless through the break.

The second half didn't change the story much. Palmeiras kept pushing through Andreas Pereira, Ramon Sosa and Piquerez again, but it was Fluminense that struck first: in the 81st minute, Hercules finished with his right foot from outside the area after an assist from Wesley Nata, making it 0-1. Palmeiras answered right away with attempts from Mauricio and Ramon Sosa, but there was no more scoring in regulation, which ended with Fluminense's goal as the only tally on the board.

The shootout that changed everything

With the score at 0-1, the tie headed to a decision from the penalty spot. Mauricio opened the shootout by converting for Palmeiras, and Thiago Silva answered for Fluminense; Gustavo Gomez and Hercules kept things level, and Ramon Sosa and Guilherme Arana also scored their turns. Piquerez made it 4-3 for Palmeiras, and the decisive moment came when Nonato missed his attempt, stopped near the right post. With that miss, Palmeiras closed out the shootout 5-3 and claimed the spot in the final, eliminating Fluminense despite the Rio side having won the 90 minutes.

What the numbers show

The stats reflect Palmeiras's territorial dominance, which never translated into a goal in regulation:

Palmeiras fired three times as many shots as Fluminense, but converted barely one of those twelve attempts into a shot on target. That gap between volume and precision also shows up in the match's estimated xG, calculated from shot location: 0.595 for Palmeiras versus 0.414 for Fluminense. Those numbers confirm a slight home edge in generating chances, though the 90-minute result went the other way.

The buildup had pointed to a match more favorable to Palmeiras than how regulation time actually played out: our projection gave Palmeiras a 54% chance of winning, compared to 18% for Fluminense and 28% for a draw, with expected goals of 1.56 for the home side and 0.81 for the visitors. What actually happened was different: Fluminense was the one that scored in the 90 minutes, and Palmeiras needed the penalty shootout to flip that script.

What the match leaves behind is exactly that paradox: Fluminense won on the field but not in the series, and Palmeiras moves on to the Copa Libertadores final carrying a partial defeat that, in the end, carried no weight in the final outcome of the tie.