Stuttgart strikes twice to beat Paderborn despite playing second fiddle in possession

A close-range header and a left-footed finish from inside the box were all VfB Stuttgart needed to take all three points from the Home Deluxe Arena. The final score, 0-2, left SC Paderborn 07 empty-handed despite generating more attacking volume than their rivals for long stretches of the game, in Bundesliga action.

Stuttgart went ahead early, in the 24th minute, when Jeff Chabot headed home a ball delivered by Angelo Stiller following a well-worked free kick. There had been warning signs before that: Jamie Leweling had rattled the post with a shot in the 29th minute (in fact, just five minutes after the goal), and Ermedin Demirovic had carved out more than one clear chance inside the opening twenty minutes. Paderborn, far from sitting back, answered with attempts from Gabriel Vidovic, Laurin Curda and Raphael Obermair, but the visitors' goal held firm until halftime with the score at 0-1.

In the second half, the home side kept pushing. Marvin Pieringer and Laurin Ulrich tried their luck on several occasions, and Ralf Kettemann's team racked up shot after shot without finding a way through. Kettemann's substitutions, bringing on Steffen Tigges and Rayan Philippe, added some extra weight in the opposition box down the stretch, with attempts from Tigges with his head and Philippe from inside the area. But it was Stuttgart who sealed it: in the 82nd minute, Chris Fuhrich finished with his left foot from inside the box, once again set up by Stiller, to make it 0-2.

The numbers behind the game

The stats make for an interesting read: Paderborn had more possession, more shots and more corners, but Stuttgart was sharper where it mattered most.

The shots on target and big chances numbers explain much of what happened: despite shooting more often, Paderborn created less clarity in front of goal. Our own xG estimate for this match, calculated from the location of each shot, gives 2.268 for Paderborn and 2.573 for Stuttgart, figures that point to a far more even contest than the final score suggested, albeit with a slight edge for the visitors even on that front.

What the preview said

The projection published before kickoff gave Stuttgart a 56% chance of winning, against 21% for Paderborn and 23% for a draw, with expected goals of 1.24 for the home side and 2.11 for the visitors. The result ended up matching that forecast: the favorite won, though the game itself was more competitive than those preview numbers suggested.

What it means in the standings

In the table, Stuttgart now sits on 6 points after their run in this competition (2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses), while Paderborn have 4 points (1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses). The gap between the two sides in the standings is just 2 points, which stands in contrast to the gulf the scoreline suggested on the field. For Paderborn, the match leaves the feeling that they created more than the result shows; for Stuttgart, the finishing of Chabot and Fuhrich, with Stiller the name behind both assists, made the difference on a night when they were nowhere near the dominant side in terms of the ball.