Stuttgart Enters as Favorite Against a Paderborn Side Desperate for Points in the Bundesliga

A matchup between two teams in urgent need of points: that's how SC Paderborn 07 welcomes VfB Stuttgart to the Home Deluxe Arena, with just a single point separating them in the Bundesliga table. Paderborn sits 12th, Stuttgart 15th, and neither club has managed to find its footing so far this season.

Paderborn comes in with a record of one win, one draw and two losses in four matches played, scoring 3 goals and conceding 5. Over its last five matches (a different and broader sample), the club has racked up two wins, one draw and two losses, with a win in its most recent outing. Stuttgart, for its part, has a rougher record in the league: one win and three losses in four matches, with 6 goals scored but 9 conceded. Over its last five matches, Stuttgart has two wins and three losses, and arrives having dropped its last two in a row.

Outside the official league record, there's some context worth examining separately. Across a sample of four 2026 Bundesliga matches home and away, Paderborn averages 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per match, with clean sheets in 25 percent of games, and tends to score more often between the 16th and 30th minutes. Stuttgart, in a similar sample, averages 1.5 goals scored and 2.25 conceded, with no clean sheets in that stretch, and its most productive window falls between the 46th and 60th minutes.

The head-to-head record doesn't favor Paderborn either: of three previous meetings, Stuttgart won two, there was one draw, and the aggregate goal difference sits at 4 to 2 in favor of the visitors.

Likely Lineups

With high reliability based on recent data, Paderborn would start with Nahuel Noll in goal; Tjark Scheller, Mattes Hansen and Jano ter Horst across the back line; Laurin Curda, Santiago Castañeda, Raphael Obermair, Gabriel Vidovic and Laurin Ulrich in midfield; and Stefano Marino alongside Marvin Pieringer up top.

Stuttgart, with medium reliability in the projection, would go with Fabian Bredlow between the posts; Maximilian Mittelstädt, Finn Jeltsch and Jeff Chabot at the back; Angelo Stiller, Grischa Prömel, Chris Führich and Josha Vagnoman in the midfield; and an attacking trio of Deniz Undav, Dzenan Pejcinovic and Ermedin Demirovic.

What the Numbers Say

Our model gives a clear edge to the visitors, though it doesn't rule out the home side entirely:

Stuttgart is favored at 56 percent, but a draw (23 percent) and a home win (21 percent) combine for more than 40 percent, so a difficult afternoon for the visitors' plans shouldn't be ruled out. Expected goals, another in-house estimate, point to 1.24 for Paderborn and 2.11 for Stuttgart, for a total of 3.34, in line with a 63 percent chance that the match goes over 2.5 goals. It's worth noting these figures are our own projection, not a betting line.

With both teams needing points, the match promises little in the way of tactical caution. The question is whether Paderborn can use home advantage to snap a run that, in recent history, has proven elusive against this opponent.