Elversberg and Augsburg Set for a Tight, Open-Ended Clash in the Bundesliga

Just one point separates Elversberg from Augsburg in the Bundesliga standings, and that fact sums up what's coming at the URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde pretty well. Ninth and sixth, respectively, both sides arrive with the same number of matches played and similar results, even if the road here hasn't been identical.

Elversberg has two wins, a draw and two losses so far this season, with 8 goals scored and 8 conceded, an even balance that leaves them right in the middle of the table. Over their last five matches the run has been uneven: they opened with two wins, but then came a loss, a draw and another loss, a sign that Vincent Wagner's side hasn't quite found consistency. Augsburg, by contrast, arrives with better overall numbers: two wins, two draws and just one loss, with 13 goals scored against only 8 conceded, the best goal difference of the two clubs. Their recent form also trailed off, with two opening wins followed by a draw, a loss and another draw.

It's worth looking at the trends from this Bundesliga 2026 campaign itself, even though it's a separate sample of five matches played both home and away. Elversberg is averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match in that sample, with 20% of matches ending in a clean sheet, and tends to do damage in the first 15 minutes. Augsburg, in the same sample, scores considerably more: 2.6 goals per match, though they also concede 1.6, with that same 20% clean sheet rate; their best scoring window comes between the 46th and 60th minutes, right at the start of the second half. Among the top scorers in that sample are Maurice Krattenmacher with 3 goals for Elversberg, and Michael Gregoritsch and Robin Fellhauer, with 3 apiece, for Augsburg.

The head-to-head history between the two is minimal: they've met just once, with Augsburg winning 3-1. A single prior meeting doesn't say much about what's coming today, but it does make clear this isn't a regular fixture.

Probable Lineups

For Elversberg, the most reliable projection has Nicolas Kristof in goal, with a back line of Maximilian Rohr, Lasse Günther, Lukas Pinckert and Jan Gyamerah, a midfield of Lukasz Poreba, Lukas Petkov, Felix Keidel, Cole Campbell and Noah Darvich, and David Mokwa leading the attack. For Augsburg, Finn Dahmen would start in goal, with Chrislain Matsima, Calvin Brackelmann and Noahkai Banks at the back, Han-Noah Massengo, Fabian Rieder, Hennes Behrens and Marius Wolf in midfield, and a front three of Robin Fellhauer, Michael Gregoritsch and Arijon Ibrahimovic. In both cases these are lineups projected from recent matches, not officially confirmed.

What the Numbers Say

Our model gives Elversberg a slight edge for playing at home, but the margin is thin and shouldn't be overstated.

Expected goals also point to a tight match: 1.47 for Elversberg against 1.28 for Augsburg, a combined total of 2.75. That figure lines up with trends showing an 80% probability of more than 2.5 goals and a 60% chance that both teams will score. These are our own projections, not betting odds, but they point to an open match with goals at both ends.

With so little separating the two sides in the table and in the probabilities, the match looks tight from start to finish. If the scoring trends hold up, it wouldn't be surprising to see a result with goals from both teams in the Bundesliga.