United States favored against Peru in friendly that looks wide open

Pochettino hosts Peru at Inter.co Stadium looking to string together some good vibes before the calendar turns serious. It's a friendly, sure, but the kind that helps take the pulse of the squad the Argentine coach is building for what lies ahead, and there's a number worth noting: our model gives the United States as many as 2.27 expected goals against Peru's 1.28, a gap that points to a match with scoring chances at both ends.

The hosts arrive with a mixed run: three wins and two losses in their last five outings, with no draws in between. Nothing linear there, more like a team that wins and loses in fairly equal measure. As additional context (and just that, a reference point, since it's a different sample and not tied to today's tournament), over their last 10 games as hosts in International Friendlies during 2025, the United States has averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.7 goals conceded per match, with clean sheets in just 10% of those games and a tendency to score late in the first half, between the 31st and 45th minutes. Alex Freeman stands out as the top finisher in that sample with two goals, followed by Sergiño Dest and Antonee Robinson with one apiece.

Peru, for its part, has also been inconsistent: two wins, one draw and two losses in its last five matches. In its own trend sample (eight games in 2025, home and away combined), Peru averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.62 goals conceded, with clean sheets in just 13% of matches and a notable quirk: its most productive stretch comes late, between the 76th and 90th minutes. Jairo Vélez is the standout name in that sample with four goals, ahead of Álex Valera and César Inga.

What the history says

There isn't much recent history between these two: just two matches, with one win for the United States, one draw, and no victories for Peru. Across those meetings, the hosts have scored three goals to the visitors' two, a narrow margin that doesn't suggest clear dominance by either side.

Likely lineups

On the US side, the probable starting eleven (with high confidence based on recent lineups) would have Matt Freese in goal, a back line of Tim Ream, Antonee Robinson, Alex Freeman and Chris Richards, a midfield of Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams and Malik Tillman, and a front line featuring Folarin Balogun, Sergiño Dest and Christian Pulisic.

Peru, with lower confidence in the projection, would likely field Pedro Gallese in goal, a back line of Marcos López, Oliver Sonne, Alfonso Barco and Renzo Garcés, a crowded midfield with Jhonny Vidales, Erick Noriega, Yoshimar Yotún, Jairo Concha and Kenji Cabrera, and Jairo Vélez leading the attack.

What the numbers say

Our model lists the United States as the favorite, though it doesn't rule out a draw or a Peru win.

That 59% for the hosts is a clear edge, but not an overwhelming one: there's room for an upset. Add to that two more readings from the model itself: a 61% probability that the match goes over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance that both teams score, figures that line up with each team's scoring trends. It's worth remembering this is an in-house estimate, not a betting line or a definitive forecast.

With those numbers on the table, Inter.co Stadium is set to host a match that promises action at both ends. If the script follows what the probabilities suggest, there should be no shortage of goals from either side.