Estoril and Casa Pia Clash at the Bottom in Search of a First Win

Bottom versus bottom. Estoril sit 17th with 2 points, and Casa Pia prop up the table in 18th with just 1. At the Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, two desperate teams still searching for their first Liga Portugal win of the season will face off, and that alone gives the match a peculiar edge, beyond whatever it contributes to the relegation battle.

Estoril have played 6 matches without a win, going 0-2-4 with 2 goals scored and 8 conceded. The picture over the last five games is no better: four losses and a draw, with no wins at all. Casa Pia arrive in even worse shape: in 6 matches played they haven't won a single one, with 1 draw and 5 losses, and a frightening goal difference of 1 scored to 15 conceded. Their recent form mirrors their rival's, four defeats and a draw in the last five outings.

Looking at where each side has found whatever success they've had, there are some interesting wrinkles. Playing at home in the Liga Portugal this season (albeit in a small sample of just 3 matches), Estoril average 0.34 goals scored and 1 conceded per game, keeping a clean sheet in 33% of those matches, with their goals tending to arrive between the 61st and 75th minutes. Casa Pia, in their own small sample of 3 away matches, have yet to score on average and concede 1 goal per game, though they too kept a clean sheet in 33% of those matches; when they have scored on the road, the opening 15 minutes have been their most productive stretch.

What the History Books Say

The head-to-head record clearly favors the home side: of 8 meetings, Estoril have won 3, there have been 4 draws, and Casa Pia have only won once, with the home side holding a 13-7 edge in total goals.

Likely Lineups

Estoril, managed by Vasco Matos, are expected to field a lineup with high reliability based on recent matches: Joel Robles in goal, with a back line of Ferro, Ismael Sierra, Ricard Sánchez and Fernando Medrano, João Carvalho, Antef Tsoungui, André Lacximicant, Xeka and Rafik Guitane in midfield, and Yanis Begraoui leading the attack.

For Casa Pia, led by Filipe Coelho, the projected lineup carries low reliability, with André Gomes in goal; André Geraldes, David Sousa, João Goulart and Pedro Rosas across the back; Lawrence Ofori, Selvi Clua, Rochinha, João Rego and Kevin Prieto in midfield, and Henrique Araújo up top.

Odds

EnPelotas's proprietary model, built on this season's trends, gives Estoril a clear but not overwhelming edge to claim all three points at home.

Our model's expected goals sit at 1.77 for Estoril and 0.93 for Casa Pia, a combined 2.70 that points to a match with scoring chances, though these are our own estimates and not a betting line.

With the bottom of the table tightly packed (just 1 point separates the two clubs), this meeting between the only two winless teams has all the makings of a game decided by small margins. Whoever wins gets a bit of breathing room; whoever loses sinks a little deeper into the danger zone of the Liga Portugal.