Estudiantes Stuns Corinthians Late, Depay Misses Stoppage Time Penalty in Libertadores Quarterfinal

There were just four minutes left when Alexis Castro showed up at the top of the box and lashed a left footed shot into the top right corner, giving Corinthians' goalkeeper no chance. 0-1 for Estudiantes de La Plata, a blow that silenced the Neo Química Arena and held up all the way to the final whistle, even after a stoppage time twist that could have changed everything.

Because the match still had one more twist in store. In the 96th minute, with the clock well past 90, the VAR reviewed a play inside the box and awarded a penalty for Corinthians for a handball by Leandro González Pírez. Memphis Depay stepped up to take it, but his right footed effort clipped the crossbar and sailed over: the shot went wide, and Estudiantes walked away with all three points in this quarterfinal clash of the Copa Libertadores.

A Tight, Scoreless First Half

The first half was more about fouls than clear cut chances. Corinthians controlled possession from the start but struggled to turn it into real danger: a free kick from Memphis Depay went just wide in the 22nd minute, and shortly after, Baltasar Rodríguez answered for Estudiantes with a shot that flew over the bar. Kaio César tried his luck with his left foot in the 37th minute and forced a save, and just before the break Gabriel Paulista couldn't quite connect with a Depay cross following a foul. The first half ended 0-0, with Tomás Palacios and Leandro González Pírez booked for Estudiantes, and Breno Bidon for the home side.

In the second half, Corinthians kept pushing down the flanks: Matheus Bidu came on with a bigger role and had a couple of chances, while Joaquín Tobio Burgos and Guido Carrillo tested things out for Estudiantes without seriously troubling the home goal. The game only really opened up in the closing stretch, once both benches had made their substitutions, and that's when the decisive sequence arrived: Tomás Palacios setting up Alexis Castro's finish for the 0-1.

What the Numbers Say

Corinthians dominated possession and created more chances, but lacked the finishing touch when it mattered. According to our own expected goals estimate based on the match's shots, the home side generated 1.168 xG compared to 0.377 for the visitors, a gap that confirms Corinthians had more and better chances but couldn't convert them.

That gap in fouls stands out: 22 for Estudiantes against 11 for Corinthians, a sign of a more physical approach from the visitors, who also finished the match with two players booked.

What Was Expected Beforehand

Going into the match, our model gave Corinthians a 37 percent chance of winning, 28 percent to Estudiantes and 35 percent to a draw, with expected goals of 1.01 for the home side and 0.85 for the visitors. The result went against that projection: Estudiantes, the slight underdog, took all three points with a single goal and without needing to control the game.

The Road to This Point

Both sides reached this quarterfinal after eliminating their round of 16 opponents. Corinthians got past Rosario Central with a scoreless draw away from home and a 1-0 win at home, while Estudiantes de La Plata got past Universidad Católica with a 1-1 draw at home and a 3-0 rout on the road. In the first leg of this quarterfinal, the two sides had drawn 1-1, so this loss leaves Corinthians needing to turn the tie around if it comes down to further matches.

In the end, the result came down to two specific moments: Alexis Castro's finish with the clock working against Corinthians, and the penalty Memphis Depay couldn't convert just when it seemed Corinthians still had time to level the score. Between those two plays lies the story of a night in which the home side created more, but it wasn't enough.