Unbeaten Everton favored at home against inconsistent Ipswich Town

Everton arrives at this fixture at Hill Dickinson Stadium unbeaten and looking to keep it that way against an Ipswich Town side that has been anything but dull: two wins, two losses and a defense that has already shipped ten goals so far in the Premier League. The clash pits two teams separated by a single point in the standings, but with fairly different profiles.

David Moyes' Everton have gone one win, three draws and one game unbeaten across their last five matches, going the whole stretch without a loss. So far this season they have posted 1 win, 3 draws and 0 losses in 4 matches, with 5 goals scored and 3 conceded, a record that has them ninth in the table with 6 points. In this season's Premier League, home and away combined, the club is averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game, with a clean sheet in 50% of matches and a scoring window between the 76th and 90th minutes, though that is a separate sample and shouldn't be read as the season's overall balance.

Ipswich Town, managed by Gary O'Neil, are going through a choppier run: two wins and three losses in their last five matches. Their record in the league stands at 2 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in 4 games, with 7 goals scored and 10 conceded, a negative goal difference that places them one spot below Everton, in tenth with the same 6 points. Their season numbers in the competition (home and away, across a sample of 4 matches) show 1.75 goals scored and 2.5 conceded per game, with no clean sheets at all, and a tendency to score early, between the 16th and 30th minutes.

What the head-to-head says

The recent history between the two sides favors Everton: of the 2 matches played, they won 1 and drew 1, with no losses, and a goal difference of 4 to 2 in their favor.

The probable lineups

For Everton, the projected lineup (with medium reliability) points to Jordan Pickford in goal, a back line with Vitalii Mykolenko, James Tarkowski, Jarrad Branthwaite and Merlin Röhl, a midfield of Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, James Garner, Harrison Armstrong and Tyrique George, with Iliman Ndiaye just behind Thierno Barry as the focal point up front.

On Ipswich Town's side, with low reliability on the projection, the probable lineup would have Kjell Scherpen in goal, a back four of Jacob Greaves, Dara O'Shea, Issa Diop and Leif Davis, a crowded midfield with Marcelino Núñez, Sasa Lukic, Abdul Fatawu, Julio Enciso and Daizen Maeda, and Emersonn as the central striker.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model, based on this season's trends, gives Everton a clear edge in this match, though it leaves the door open for a draw and doesn't rule out a visitor's upset.

Our own expected goals estimate puts Everton at 1.97 and Ipswich Town at 0.86, for a combined total of 2.83 goals in the match. It's worth clarifying that this is our own projection, not a betting line or a definitive forecast. The broader trends back up that reading: a 50% chance the match goes over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance both teams score.

With Everton looking to extend their unbeaten run and Ipswich Town needing to stop the bleeding on defense, Hill Dickinson Stadium has the makings of a match with goals at both ends.