Everton snatches 2-2 draw against Manchester United with stoppage-time Maitland-Niles goal

Five minutes of stoppage time, and there was still a goal left in it. Everton rescued a 2-2 draw against Manchester United at Hill Dickinson Stadium thanks to a finish from Ainsley Maitland-Niles in the 95th minute, after falling behind twice in the second half. A match that looked all but sealed for United ended up handing out a point to each side in the Premier League.

The first half finished scoreless but not chance-free: Bruno Fernandes crashed a shot off the crossbar in the 7th minute, and Thierno Barry had as many as three attempts between the 39th and 42nd minutes, one of them grazing the bar. Nothing changed on the scoreboard, but the game made clear both sides were going for it.

United wasted no time at the start of the second half. Almost as soon as play resumed, in the 46th minute, Bryan Mbeumo curled a left-footed effort from outside the box, set up by Kobbie Mainoo, to make it 0-1. Everton answered with patience: it wasn't until the 82nd minute that Tyrique George, with a shot into the top corner off a pass from Hayden Hackney, leveled it 1-1.

The joy at Hill Dickinson Stadium didn't last long. Five minutes later, in the 87th, Benjamin Sesko, who had come on as a substitute, rose to head home a Luke Shaw cross and restore United's lead, 1-2. With the result looking all but settled, the match entered stoppage time, five minutes signaled by the fourth official. And there, in the 95th minute, came the final blow: Ainsley Maitland-Niles, who had come on after James Garner went off injured, struck from outside the area to make it a definitive 2-2.

The numbers behind the match

United had more of the ball and created slightly more going forward, but Everton was the team that shot more often and with better accuracy.

According to our xG model, calculated after the fact based on shot location, Everton generated 1.194 expected goals against United's 0.897, a gap that backs up the sense that the home side deserved at least the point it ultimately took.

The preview we published ahead of the match gave Everton a 37% chance of winning, 29% for a draw and 34% for a United win, with combined expected goals of 2.72 (1.40 for the home side and 1.32 for the visitors). The final result, with four goals split between the two teams and an outcome decided in stoppage time, ended up lining up fairly well with that even-match script, though the road to the draw was far bumpier than any projection could have anticipated.

What it means in the standings

The draw leaves Everton in eighth place with 5 points from 3 games played, while Manchester United sits eleventh with 4 points, also from 3 matches, just one point behind the Merseyside club. Neither side has lost yet this early in the Premier League season, though neither has managed to pull away from the middle of the table either.

What remains from this match is the image of a United side that had control and twice took the lead, and an Everton side that never stopped pushing until it found its reward on the last possible play.