FA Cup: Guiseley host a struggling Sutton United, but history favors the visitors

Nethermoor Park is set for the kind of fixture that gives the FA Cup its flavor: a Guiseley side looking to spring an upset against a Sutton United team that's been struggling and badly needs a response. This is no ordinary match for either club, and the recent numbers make clear the tie is more open than it might look on paper.

Guiseley, managed by Ian Richards, come into this one off a bittersweet draw in their last outing after an uneven stretch: over their last five matches they've picked up one win, two draws and two losses. It's not a dominant run, but it's not the mark of a team in freefall either. Sutton United, meanwhile, are going through a rougher patch: across their last five fixtures they managed just one draw and four losses, with no wins in that span. That gap in momentum could loom large at Nethermoor Park, where Cup upsets often feed off exactly this kind of contrast.

Neither side has much of a track record in this edition of the competition: the season trend sample for both clubs in the 2024/2025 FA Cup is limited to a single match played, home and away combined, so any figures drawn from it should be taken with caution. What can be said, with that caveat in mind, is that Guiseley scored in that sample mostly between the 76th and 90th minutes, with Will Longbottom netting twice, while Sutton United found their goal in the 31st to 45th minute window, with David Ogbonna the man involved. In both cases, clean sheets stood at 0%, though again, this reflects that narrow sample and shouldn't be mistaken for overall form in the competition.

A head-to-head record that clearly favors Sutton United

The history between these two clubs leaves little doubt about who has had the upper hand in direct meetings: of the 4 matches played, Sutton United won 3, Guiseley took 1 and there were no draws. The goal difference is even more telling: 8 for Sutton United against just 2 for Guiseley. It's a precedent that carries weight, though the current form of both teams tells a different story from those earlier meetings.

Sutton United's likely setup

On the visitors' side, there's a projected lineup that, while inferred and low in reliability, offers a hint of how Chris Agutter might set his team up: Jack Sims in goal, a back line of Junior Eccleston, Kwaku Donkor, Besart Topalloj and Edon Pruti, a midfield of Jake Taylor, Charlie Bell, Hayden Muller and Jayden Harris, and a front two of Lewis Simper and David Ogbonna. There's no projected XI available for Guiseley, so it remains to be seen how Ian Richards lines up his side on the pitch.

Our model gives a slight edge to Guiseley for playing at home, though the margin is thin, leaving all three outcomes very much in play:

The 42% for Guiseley, 30% for Sutton United and 28% for a draw paint the picture of an even match with no clear favorite. The expected goals figures, which are our own estimate rather than an official statistic, point to a game with scoring chances for both sides, with a combined total near 2.83. It's worth remembering this probability is our own reading based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast.

With Guiseley arriving in somewhat better shape mentally and Sutton United needing to snap their losing run, this round at Nethermoor Park looks like one that could come down to fine margins. History favors the visitors, but it's the current form of both sides that will truly be tested on the field.