FA Cup: in-form Hornchurch given 43% chance of upsetting Blackpool, model shows

A National League side hosting an English football institution with three divisions separating them: that's what's on the table in this FA Cup tie at Hornchurch Stadium. Hornchurch arrive full of confidence, Blackpool arrive on a roll, and our model doesn't see a game as lopsided as the gap on paper suggests.

Hornchurch, managed by Daryl McMahon, are unbeaten in their last five matches, with three wins and two draws in that span. It's a solid run of recent form, the kind that breeds confidence before facing a higher-tier opponent.

Across from them, Blackpool are enjoying a strong stretch of their own: four wins in their last five games, with just one defeat mixed in. What's more, across the three matches they've played in this season's FA Cup so far (home and away), Ian Evatt's side are averaging 2 goals scored and 1 conceded per game, keeping a clean sheet in 33% of those matches, and they tend to be especially dangerous between the 31st and 45th minutes. That's a small sample specific to this cup run, not the team's overall output, but it points to a Blackpool side that likes to strike before halftime. Tom Bloxham stands out as their top scorer in those three matches, with one goal.

The probable lineups

For Hornchurch, the core group McMahon has leaned on over the last six games looks fairly settled: Arthur Nasta between the posts, a back line with Giles Phillips, Sam Ling and Harry Gibbs, and a midfield built around Josh Rees and Tom Wraight. Up top, Angelo Balanta and Dominic Poleon project as the attacking focal points, though this lineup is an estimate drawn from previous matches, not an official confirmation.

On Blackpool's side, the projection carries less certainty, a sign of more rotation lately. Even so, names like Bailey Peacock-Farrell in goal, Oliver Casey in defense, Christopher Hamilton in midfield and Tom Bloxham up front have been regulars over the last six matches, and could well feature again in this likely starting eleven.

What the numbers say

Our model doesn't see an easy afternoon for the visitors, contrary to what the gap in divisions might suggest:

The numbers are tightly spread: the 43% favors Hornchurch as the home side, but the draw sits close behind at 27% and Blackpool aren't far off at 30%. The combined expected goals, 3.01 in total, point to an open game rather than a tightly scripted one. It's worth remembering this is EnPelotas' own estimate, not a bookmaker's odds or a locked-in prediction.

With home advantage on its side and a run of form to back it up, Hornchurch has a real case for competing on equal footing. Blackpool, for its part, can't afford to ease off given its recent run of good results in this round of the FA Cup. The scoreline will tell whether the forecast holds up or whether there's an upset brewing at Hornchurch Stadium.