FC Dallas edges Minnesota United 2-1 on Santiago Moreno's late winner

Kelvin Yeboah had Allianz Field dreaming of a draw when he curled a left-footed finish into the top corner to make it 1-1, but the celebration didn't last long: eleven minutes later, a counterattack ended at the feet of Santiago Moreno, and FC Dallas came away with a 2-1 win. Minnesota United was left empty-handed again in a match that, by the numbers, deserved a bit more.

The match was played at Allianz Field in MLS and started in fits and starts, with barely a clear chance to speak of. Marcus Caldeira tried his luck a couple of times in the first half, first with a shot that went just wide and then with a header, but neither side managed to truly trouble the opposing goal before the break: the score was still 0-0 at halftime.

A goal at the right moment changes everything

The second half took time to open up, until the 61st minute, when Kaick popped up from the middle of the box to put FC Dallas ahead with a shot that slipped in on the right side of the goal, assisted by Joaquin Valiente. Minnesota responded quickly: just eleven minutes later, in the 72nd minute, Kelvin Yeboah first rattled the post with a shot, and on the very next play made no mistake, curling a left-footed finish into the top corner after a through ball from Kyle Duncan to make it 1-1.

The tie didn't last long. With the game more open, FC Dallas found the decisive blow on a quick transition: in the 83rd minute, off a counterattack, Sam Sarver set up Santiago Moreno, who slotted a low finish just inside the left post to make it 2-1, the final score. Minnesota tried one last response in the six minutes of stoppage time added by the fourth official, but couldn't generate enough danger to force another twist.

The numbers explain the visitors' edge

Minnesota controlled the ball a bit more, but FC Dallas was sharper in both boxes, and that shows up in the stats.

The big chances tally, one for the home side against five for the visitors, sums up the match pretty well: FC Dallas generated more real danger in the opposing box. That's also reflected in the xG estimated after the fact, calculated by our model based on shot location: 1.587 for Minnesota United against 2.784 for FC Dallas, a gap that backs up the final result even though the score stayed level well into the second half.

The preview we published before the match gave Minnesota United a 43% chance of winning, FC Dallas 32%, and a draw 25%, with expected goals of 1.85 for the home side and 1.59 for the visitors. The result ended up going against what we projected: the less-favored team took home all three points, and the total goal count (three) came close to what was forecast, even if it was split differently than expected.

What the result means in the standings

In the Western Conference, FC Dallas holds onto fourth place with 40 points from 24 matches played (11 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses), while Minnesota United sits eleventh with 29 points from 24 matches (7 wins, 8 draws and 9 losses). The gap between the two in the standings stands at 11 points, a reflection of two campaigns that have gone in different directions so far, something this match, comeback win and all, only confirmed.