FC Dallas hosts San Jose Earthquakes in direct duel for third place in MLS

Third against fourth, separated by just 3 points in the Western Conference of MLS: that's how FC Dallas arrives at its showdown with San Jose Earthquakes at Toyota Stadium, a match that could shuffle the top of the table without anyone breaking away for good.

Eric Quill's Dallas side comes in with 14 wins, 9 draws and 7 losses in 30 matches, with 55 goals scored and 47 allowed, numbers that have them sitting third in the conference. Over their last five matches they've picked up two wins, two draws and a loss, an uneven stretch mixing good runs with the occasional stumble. San Jose, meanwhile, has been steadier at the back: 13 wins, 9 draws and 8 losses on the season, with 52 goals scored and 42 allowed, putting them just one rung below in fourth place. What stands out about the Earthquakes is their immediate form: in their last five matches they've collected four draws and just one win, without a single loss, a team that isn't slipping but also hasn't quite turned that solid run into victories.

Looking at Dallas's home form this MLS season (a sample of 14 matches played at Toyota Stadium), the Texas side averages 1.86 goals scored and 1.44 allowed per game, with 29% of matches finishing with a clean sheet, and they tend to do their damage between the 31st and 45th minutes. San Jose, in their own road sample (15 matches), score 1.74 goals per game and concede 1.26, with 20% clean sheets, and their most productive window is right at the start, between minute 0 and 15. These are contextual numbers, not head-to-head figures, but they paint a picture of two teams with goals in their legs.

Speaking of goals: Petar Musa leads Dallas's offensive production in that same home sample with 20 goals, followed by Logan Farrington with 10 and Kaick with 4. On San Jose's side, Preston Judd stands out as the top scorer with 16 goals in his road sample, joined by Ousseni Bouda and Timo Werner, both with 6.

What the history says

The two sides have met 8 times, with a fairly even split: 2 wins for Dallas, 4 draws and 2 wins for San Jose. In terms of goals, the Earthquakes even hold a slight edge, 15 to 14, across those meetings.

Possible lineups

Dallas's likely starting eleven, projected from their recent matches, would have Daniel in goal, with Shaq Moore, Sebastien Ibeagha, Nolan Norris and Osaze Urhoghide across the back line, Kaick, Ramiro, Christian Cappis, Bernard Kamungo and Herman Johansson in midfield, and Joaquin Valiente leading the attack. This is a low confidence projection, not a confirmed lineup.

San Jose, for their part, could field Angus Gunn in goal, Dave Romney, Daniel Munie, Reid Roberts, Jamar Ricketts and Jack Jasinski in defense, Beau Leroux, Eduard Lowen and Ronaldo Vieira in midfield, and Preston Judd alongside Timo Werner up top. This too is an estimate drawn from previous matches, not official information.

What the numbers say

Our model gives Dallas a 46% chance of winning, against 29% for San Jose and 25% for a draw: a clear home edge but far from overwhelming. This is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive prediction. On top of that, the probability of both teams scoring sits at 68% and the chance of the match going over 2.5 goals reaches 52%, which fits two teams that don't often keep things scoreless with ease.

With third and fourth place in the conference on the line and just 3 points separating them, Toyota Stadium could end the night with the standings looking a little different than they did at kickoff.