FC Dallas hosts red hot Seattle Sounders with third place in the West on the line

Third against seventh in the West, separated by just six points: that's the backdrop as FC Dallas welcomes Seattle Sounders FC to Toyota Stadium for an MLS showdown that could shake up the Western Conference picture in a big way.

Dallas has racked up 47 points through 28 matches (13 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses, with 52 goals scored and 45 allowed) and sits third in the standings, just three points off top spot. Over its last five games the club has posted three wins, a draw and a loss, including a victory in its most recent outing before a stumble. Seattle, meanwhile, arrives in seventh with 41 points (11 wins, 8 draws, 9 losses, 38 goals for and 35 against), but it's riding a hot streak: four wins and a draw in its last five matches, with no losses in that stretch. It's rare to see a mid table club carrying this much momentum.

In the 2026 MLS season, playing at home, Dallas is averaging 1.917 goals scored and 1.529 goals conceded per match across 13 games, with clean sheets in 23 percent of those matches and its best scoring window between the 31st and 45th minutes. Petar Musa stands out as the club's top scorer in that sample with 19 goals, followed by Logan Farrington with 10. On the road, Seattle this same season is averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.08 allowed across 14 away matches, with clean sheets in 36 percent of them and its most productive stretch coming late, between the 76th and 90th minutes. Cristian Roldan and Paul Rothrock share the team lead in that span with 5 goals apiece.

A history that clearly favors Seattle

The head to head record between these two sides is telling: in 8 previous meetings, Seattle has won 6, Dallas just 1, with 1 draw, and an aggregate score of 11 goals for Seattle to 6 for Dallas. It's context, not a guarantee of what happens today, but it shows the Sounders have historically been an uncomfortable matchup for Dallas.

Probable lineups

With low reliability based on recent patterns, Dallas could line up with Daniel in goal; a back line of Osaze Urhoghide, Nolan Norris and Sebastien Ibeagha; a midfield featuring Shaq Moore, Kaick, Christian Cappis, Ramiro and Bernard Kamungo; and up top Joaquin Valiente alongside Logan Farrington.

For Seattle, with medium reliability, the probable starting eleven would have Andrew Thomas between the posts; a defense of Alex Roldan, Nouhou Tolo, Jackson Ragen and Stuart Hawkins; a midfield of Albert Rusnak, Cristian Roldan, Jordan Morris and Hassani Dotson; and up front Dejan Joveljic and Danny Musovski.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model projects a tight match, with a slight lean toward the home side:

These numbers don't point to a clear favorite: Dallas's 40 percent sits alongside Seattle's 33 percent and a 27 percent chance of a draw, a gap too narrow to call this one decided in advance. This is our own projection based on season long trends, not a betting line. The expected goals tell a similar story: 1.58 for Dallas versus 1.40 for Seattle, a combined 2.98 that lines up with a 49 percent probability the match goes over 2.5 goals and a 60 percent chance both teams find the net.

With Dallas defending third place and Seattle rolling in off its best recent run of form, Toyota Stadium is set up for a tight, competitive match from start to finish in this stretch of the MLS regular season, where every point matters in the race for position in the West.