FC Dallas favored at home against a Sporting Kansas City side that can't find its footing in MLS

Nineteen points separate the two teams meeting at Toyota Stadium, and that gap says plenty about what's on the line. FC Dallas wants to stay in the mix for a Western Conference playoff spot in MLS, while Sporting Kansas City, second to last in the group, arrives with one of the league's shakiest defenses.

Dallas sits fifth with 34 points, built on 9 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses across 22 matches, with 41 goals scored and 37 allowed. The recent picture is choppier than the standings suggest: over the last five matches, Dallas has two wins, a draw and two losses, most recently settling for a draw. At home in this 2026 MLS season, across a sample of 9 matches, the club averages 2.004 goals scored and 1.784 allowed, with clean sheets in just 11% of those games, and its most productive scoring window falls between the 0th and 15th minutes.

Kansas City, meanwhile, is having a season to forget. Sitting 15th with 15 points from just 4 wins, 3 draws and 15 losses, with 20 goals scored and 54 allowed, the worst goal differential in the league. The recent form backs it up: four losses and a draw in the last five matches, with no wins at all. On the road this MLS season, in 11 matches, Kansas City averages just 0.72 goals scored per game, concedes 3 on average and has yet to record a single clean sheet (0%). Its best scoring stretch comes late, between the 76th and 90th minutes.

The head-to-head history also tilts toward the home side: across 8 meetings, Dallas has won 5, Kansas City 3, with no draws, and the Texans hold a 16-13 edge in goals scored.

Projected lineups

Based on the estimated lineup, Dallas would field Jonathan Sirois in goal, with Petar Musa (the club's top scorer at home with 16 goals this season) and Joaquin Valiente up top, supported by Ramiro and Bernard Kamungo in midfield. On the other side, Kansas City would go with Stefan Cleveland in net, Dejan Joveljic and Shapi Suleymanov as the attacking references, and Calvin Harris (its most productive scorer on the road) anchoring the midfield. In both cases, this is a projected XI based on recent matches, not a confirmed lineup.

What the numbers say

Our model gives a clear edge to the home team:

With FC Dallas at 75% against Kansas City's 9%, there's little room for balance here, it's one of the widest gaps this kind of projection can produce. The model also puts a 79% probability on the match going over 2.5 goals and just 35% on both teams scoring, reinforcing the picture of a high-scoring affair weighted heavily toward the home side. Worth noting, all of this is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a locked-in result.

With Musa on a scoring streak and a visiting defense that hasn't kept a clean sheet on the road all year, Toyota Stadium shapes up as a tough test for a Sporting Kansas City side that badly needs to turn around a slump that, for now, shows no signs of letting up.