Fenerbahçe and Slavia Prague both chase their first Champions League win

The bottom of the Champions League league phase table sets up shop this Thursday at the Chobani Stadyumu, where Fenerbahçe hosts Slavia Prague in a matchup between two clubs that have yet to win a single game in the competition. With just one point out of six for the Turkish side and none for the Czechs, what's at stake is simply the chance to stop looking over their shoulder at the standings.

Fenerbahçe arrives in rough shape on this front: two games played in the tournament, with a draw and a loss, one goal scored and seven conceded, a record that leaves them in 28th place overall. That's a stark contrast to their recent form outside the Champions League, where they've won four of their last five matches with just one defeat. Slavia Prague, for its part, hasn't even managed a draw in the competition: two games, two losses, two goals scored and five allowed. Their last five matches elsewhere haven't gone much better either, with two wins and three losses.

Neither team can afford to relax if it wants to keep its hopes alive in this league phase, and the head-to-head history offers little comfort for Fenerbahçe fans either: of the three meetings on record, Slavia Prague has won two and Fenerbahçe one, with the Czech side scoring seven goals to the hosts' six.

Probable lineups

Ismail Kartal would likely go with a familiar setup, with Ederson in goal and a back line of Milan Skriniar, Nathan Aké, Nélson Semedo and Archie Brown, the latter responsible for Fenerbahçe's only goal in this season's Champions League, which came in the 46th to 60th minute window. The midfield would feature Mason Greenwood, Mattéo Guendouzi and N'Golo Kanté, with Vedat Muriqi leading the line up top. That said, this is a projected lineup based on recent matches, not an official confirmation, and should be read as such.

On the Slavia Prague side, with somewhat less certainty in the projection, Jindrich Trpisovsky would field Jakub Markovic in goal, a back line of Tomás Vlcek, Stepán Chaloupek, Igoh Ogbu, Tomás Holes and David Zima, a midfield of Michal Sadílek, Lukás Provod, David Moses and Alexandr Buzek, and Mojmír Chytil up front. Danijel Sturm, with two goals in this Champions League campaign's sample, stands out as the Czech squad's offensive name, though the projected lineup doesn't have him among the recent starters.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model gives a slight edge to the home side, though without an overwhelming favorite: the odds come out to 52% for a Fenerbahçe win, 25% for a draw and 23% for Slavia Prague. The expected goals tell a similarly close story: 1.93 for the Turkish side against 1.24 for the visitors, a combined total of 3.17 that points to a match with scoring chances for both sides.

Worth noting: this is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a bookmaker's odds or a definitive forecast. With both teams desperate for a win, the match figures to open up more than the numbers suggest, and whichever side strikes first may find the kind of reward neither has managed yet in this Champions League campaign.