Flamengo and Estudiantes settle a Libertadores final spot at the Maracana

The 0-0 draw in the first leg in La Plata left everything up for grabs, and now the series shifts to the Maracana with a huge prize on the line: a spot in the Copa Libertadores final. Flamengo hosts Estudiantes de La Plata in the semifinals needing to break the deadlock in front of its own fans, while the Argentine side knows a tight result would be enough to keep the dream alive.

The contrast between the two sides this tournament is striking. Flamengo arrives unbeaten: in 11 matches played, it has won 7 and drawn 4 without a single loss, scoring 20 goals and conceding just 5. Estudiantes, by contrast, has posted 4 wins, 6 draws and 1 loss in those same 11 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 7. In recent form, Flamengo has three wins and two draws in its last five outings without a defeat, while Estudiantes has one win, two draws and two losses over the same span, a far more uneven run.

It's worth noting that these form numbers are just a small sample and don't tell the whole story of the campaign. More telling, though still not directly comparable to the tournament overall, is how Flamengo has performed at home in this same 2026 Copa Libertadores: over its last 5 home matches it has averaged 2.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, kept a clean sheet in 40% of those games, and has been most productive offensively between the 76th and 90th minutes. Bruno Henrique leads the scoring charts there with 5 goals, followed by Giorgian de Arrascaeta with 4 and Lucas Paquetá with 3. Estudiantes, meanwhile, on the road in the same competition and season, has averaged 1.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded over its last 5 away matches, also with a 40% clean sheet rate, and tends to score more between the 46th and 60th minutes. Guido Carrillo and Tiago Palacios stand out there, with 3 goals apiece.

The road here and the head to head

Flamengo reached this stage by eliminating Cruzeiro in the round of 16 (a 1-1 draw away and a 2-1 win at home) and Independiente del Valle in the quarterfinals (a 2-0 win away and a 1-1 draw at home). Estudiantes, for its part, knocked out Universidad Catolica (a 1-1 draw at home and a 3-0 win away) and Corinthians (a 1-1 draw at home and a 1-0 win away), a run that included solid performances on the road. In the all-time series between the two clubs, across 5 matches played, Flamengo holds the edge with 2 wins to Estudiantes' 1 and 2 draws, with the Brazilian side scoring 4 goals to the Argentine club's 3.

Possible lineups

With medium reliability, Leonardo Jardim's Flamengo would likely field Agustin Rossi in goal, Leo Pereira, Leo Ortiz, Emerson Royal and Guillermo Varela across the back line, Jorge Carrascal, Samuel Lino, Erick Pulgar, Jorginho and Lucas Paquetá in midfield, and Pedro up front as the lone reference. On the Estudiantes side, with a lower confidence level on this projection, Alexander Medina could go with Fernando Muslera in goal, a back line of Leandro Gonzalez Pirez, Tomas Palacios, Gaston Benedetti, Edwuin Cetre, Santiago Nunez and Eros Mancuso, and Miguel Monsalve, Joaquin Tobio Burgos, Ezequiel Piovi and Baltasar Rodriguez rounding out the midfield.

What the numbers say

Our model gives a clear edge to the home side, though it doesn't rule out the visitor or a draw:

These figures come from our own estimate, not betting odds, and they mark Flamengo as a clear but not overwhelming favorite: the combined chance of a draw or an away win sits at around 42%. Expected goals tell a similar story: 1.6 for the home side against 0.68 for the visitor, for an estimated total of 2.28. The model's calculated trends put the probability of more than 2.5 goals in the match at 40%, and the chance of both teams scoring at 80%.

With the series level and home advantage on its side, Flamengo will look to make the difference count at the Maracana. Estudiantes, which has already shown on the road that it can trouble big-name opponents, has everything it needs to turn this match into a tight battle that goes down to the wire.