Freiburg hosts a struggling Union Berlin as the clear favorite

The Europa-Park Stadion hosts a matchup with clear contrasts: Freiburg, third in the Bundesliga, against a Union Berlin side sitting 16th and carrying one of the worst goal differences in the league. Rarely does a table reflect the state of two teams as clearly as it does here.

Julian Schuster's side has racked up 16 points in eight matches (5 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 18 goals scored and 10 allowed), numbers that keep them in third place. They're also trending upward: after two defeats, they strung together three straight wins in their last five matches. For context, at home in this Bundesliga campaign, over a sample of four matches, Freiburg averages 3 goals scored and 1.24 allowed per game, with a 25% clean sheet rate, and tends to find the net most often between the 76th and 90th minutes.

On the other side, Union Berlin is going through a rough patch: just 7 points in eight matchdays (1 win, 4 draws and 3 losses), with only 7 goals scored against 19 allowed, the worst goal difference among the teams in the lower half. Over their last five matches they picked up one win and three draws, plus one loss, a run that keeps them afloat without lifting them off the bottom of the table. As road team in this season's Bundesliga, over a sample of three matches, they average just 0.32 goals scored per game against 4 allowed, without a single clean sheet, and their most productive offensive stretch comes between the 61st and 75th minutes.

The gap in the standings is 9 points between the two sides, which already hints at the imbalance of this clash.

What the head-to-head record says

The recent history between the two teams doesn't favor Freiburg either, despite their current form: in the 8 meetings on record, Union Berlin has won 5, there have been 3 draws, and Freiburg hasn't won a single one, with a combined score of 4 to 9 in favor of the Berliners. It's a curious wrinkle ahead of a match where the odds point the other way.

Possible lineups

Based on recent matches, Freiburg could start with Mio Backhaus in goal, a back line of Matthias Ginter, Jordy Makengo, Philipp Lienhart and Lukas Kübler, a midfield of Maximilian Eggestein, Yannik Engelhardt, Niklas Beste, Yuito Suzuki and Vincenzo Grifo, with Igor Matanovic leading the attack. This is a probable lineup, with low reliability according to the estimate.

Union Berlin, with a higher-reliability estimate, would likely field Frederik Rønnow in goal, a back line of Rani Khedira, Zeno Van den Bosch, Tom Rothe and Felix Uduokhai, a midfield of András Schäfer, Michel Aebischer, Janik Haberer and Woo-yeong Jeong, and up top Tim Skarke alongside Kastriot Imeri.

What the model shows

Our in-house projection, based on this season's trends, gives a clear edge to Freiburg.

The model also projects expected goals of 2.31 for Freiburg against 1.03 for Union Berlin, an estimated total of 3.34 goals in the match. On top of that, the probability of over 2.5 goals sits at 83%, while the chance of both teams scoring drops to 33%, suggesting a game with a tendency toward plenty of goals, but concentrated mostly on one side. It's worth noting these figures are our own projection, not betting odds.

With Freiburg solid at home and Union Berlin struggling on the road, the match at the Europa-Park Stadion has all the makings of a test for whether the hosts' recent improvement can hold up against a rival that badly needs to turn things around.