Frosinone hosts Juve Stabia in Coppa Italia as favorite on the back of winning streak

Stadio Benito Stirpe hosts a Coppa Italia clash between Frosinone and Juve Stabia, two teams arriving in completely opposite form as they fight for a spot in the next round of the competition.

Current form

Frosinone is going through a strong stretch: over its last five matches it has racked up four wins and a draw, with no losses in that span. The home side tends to be at its strongest late in the first half, its most productive attacking window (between the 31st and 45th minutes), and has kept a clean sheet in half of its recent games, a sign of defensive solidity. Giorgi Kvernadze, who also tends to start up front, is the club's top scorer with one goal.

Juve Stabia, on the other hand, comes in on a much shakier run: just one win in its last five outings, with two draws and two losses in that stretch. The visitors have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their recent matches (0% clean sheets), though they tend to be sharper in the opening 15 minutes, their most productive scoring window.

Head to head

History favors Frosinone. Of the seven previous meetings between the two clubs, the home side won three, three ended in draws and Juve Stabia won just once. In terms of goals, Frosinone has scored nine to the visitors' six, a gap that backs up its status as favorite in this historical series.

Possible lineups

Based on the lineups used in recent matches, Frosinone could field a side with plenty of continuity: Lorenzo Palmisani in goal, a back line of Anthony Oyono, Gabriele Bracaglia, Ilario Monterisi and Giorgio Cittadini, a midfield of Giacomo Calo, Matteo Cichella and Francesco Gelli, and an attacking trio of Giorgi Kvernadze, Antonio Raimondo and Fares Ghedjemis. In every case, this is a probable, unconfirmed lineup.

For Juve Stabia, the likely lineup would have Alessandro Confente in goal, with Andrea Giorgini, Marco Bellich, Christian Dalle Mura and Salim Diakite on defense, Giuseppe Leone, Omar Correia, Nicola Mosti and Alessio Cacciamani in midfield, and Fabio Maistro alongside Alvin Okoro leading the attack. This too is an estimate based on recent starting lineups, not an official eleven.

What the numbers say

These percentages, calculated from the season's trends, point to a clear edge for Frosinone, which holds a 63% chance of winning compared to 14% for Juve Stabia, with 23% set aside for a draw. The combined expected goals figure, close to 2.9 total, suggests a match with scoring chances for both sides, though with more offensive weight on the home team's end. It's worth noting this is an in-house estimate drawn from the season's trends, not a fixed prediction or a betting line.

Looking ahead to the match

Riding the momentum of four wins in its last five matches and backed by the recent head-to-head record, Frosinone arrives as the better-positioned side to make the most of home advantage at the Benito Stirpe. Juve Stabia, in need of rediscovering defensive solidity, will look to use its ability to strike early and disrupt the host's plans at this stage of the Coppa Italia.