Frosinone hosts Torino in a wide-open Serie A clash at the Benito Stirpe

Frosinone sits sixth with 17 points, and Torino is ninth with 13, but just four points separate the two sides in the Serie A table. That detail sums up what to expect at the Benito Stirpe pretty well: a matchup between two mid-table teams that, each in their own way, are going through a good stretch.

Frosinone comes in with a record of 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses through 9 matches played in the league, scoring 22 goals and conceding 14. Over its last five matches it picked up three wins, one draw and one loss, with a victory in the most recent outing. As the home side in this Serie A campaign, over a sample of 5 matches, Frosinone averages 2.808 goals scored and 1.206 conceded per game, with a 20% clean sheet rate and its most productive scoring window falling between the 16th and 30th minutes. Antonio Raimondo is the club's top scorer in that sample with 8 goals, followed by Giacomo Calo with 4 and Giorgi Kvernadze with 3.

Torino, for its part, has racked up 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses in the league, scoring 14 goals and conceding 14. In its last five matches it won three, drew one and lost one, though the most recent one got away from them. As a visitor in this season's Serie A, over a sample of 4 matches, Ignazio Abate's side averages 1.755 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per match, with a 25% clean sheet rate and its best offensive output coming between the 61st and 75th minutes. Che Adams leads that sample with 4 goals, ahead of Giovanni Simeone and Sandro Kulenovic, who have 2 apiece.

The head-to-head record doesn't point to a clear favorite on paper either: in 8 meetings, Torino has won 4, Frosinone 2, and there have been 2 draws, with a combined goal tally of 9 to 12 in favor of the visitors.

Probable lineups

Massimiliano Alvini could stick with the same group that has started most of the recent matches: Lorenzo Palmisani in goal; Anthony Oyono, Gabriele Calvani, Gabriele Bracaglia and Giorgio Cittadini across the back line; Fares Ghedjemis, Giacomo Calo, Romano Schmid, Giorgi Kvernadze and Patrizio Masini in midfield; and Antonio Raimondo up top as the reference forward. This is an estimated lineup, with high reliability based on how often these players have started recently.

On Torino's side, with medium reliability in the projection, the likely starting eleven would be rounded out by Lucas Perri between the posts; Saul Coco, Pietro Comuzzo and Ardian Ismajli in defense; Alessio Cacciamani, Rafik Belghali, Nikola Vlasic, Rolando Mandragora, Daniel Braganca and Kian Fitz-Jim in midfield; and Giovanni Simeone as the lone striker.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model gives Frosinone a 48% chance of taking the win at home, while a draw sits at 26% and a Torino victory also at 26%. There's no overwhelming favorite here: the home side starts with a slight edge, but the result is far from a foregone conclusion.

This table is EnPelotas' own estimate, not a betting line. On top of that, our model calculates a 68% chance the match goes over 2.5 goals and an 80% chance both teams score, figures that line up with the offensive profile both clubs have shown in their respective settings.

With Frosinone looking to push even further up the table and Torino needing to get back to winning ways away from home, the Benito Stirpe promises an open match, the kind that stays undecided until the final whistle.