Füllkrug nets two penalties as Werder Bremen stun Mainz 05, 3-2

It took Niclas Füllkrug just six minutes to put Werder Bremen ahead at the MEWA ARENA, and before Mainz 05 could even settle, the visitors were already up 2-0 thanks to a second penalty from the same player. The match ended 3-2 for the visitors in a Bundesliga clash in which Mainz pushed hard, leveled the score at two apiece, and ultimately came up short.

The forecast we published ahead of kickoff gave Mainz 05 a 53 percent chance of winning, against just 21 percent for Werder Bremen, with expected goals of 1.80 to 1.06 in favor of the hosts. What happened on the field was the exact opposite: the team with the longer odds walked away with the three points.

Two penalties and an uphill first half

Mainz got off to a rough start, and not for lack of effort. In the 5th minute, Stefan Posch fouled Arthur inside the box, and the referee pointed to the spot. Füllkrug made no mistake, firing a low right-footed shot just inside the left post to make it 1-0 in the 6th minute. The script repeated itself almost identically in the 22nd minute, when Danny da Costa brought down Marco Grüll in the area. Penalty again, Füllkrug again, same corner of the net: 2-0 in the 24th minute.

Mainz 05 responded before halftime. In the 32nd minute, Anthony Caci headed home from close range off a cross from Sheraldo Becker to make it 2-1, and the home side went into the break still believing the match was there to be won.

The equalizer that didn't hold

In the second half, Werder Bremen struck first again. In the 60th minute, Ludovit Reis curled a left-footed shot from outside the box into the right side of the net, assisted by Grüll, making it 3-1. Just two minutes later, in the 62nd, Lee Jae-Sung answered with a header from the center of the box, set up by Caci himself, to make it 3-2, which would end up being the final score.

Mainz had several chances afterward to draw level (Nadiem Amiri, Sheraldo Becker, Phillip Tietz more than once) but none found the net, and Werder Bremen weathered the closing minutes, including five of stoppage time, without conceding again.

What the numbers say

Mainz 05 dominated possession and created more clear-cut chances, but Werder Bremen's efficiency from the penalty spot made the difference.

Based on our post-match xG calculation from the shots taken, Werder Bremen generated 2.832 expected goals to Mainz 05's 2.123, a reading that, combined with the home side's four big chances against the visitors' one, makes clear Mainz squandered more than it converted.

What it means in the standings

With this result, Werder Bremen moves to 12 points from 7 matches played (3 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss), while Mainz 05 sits on 10 points also from 7 matches (3 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses). The gap between the two in the table is just 2 points, with Werder in sixth place and Mainz right behind in seventh.

The match leaves a clear picture: two early penalties from Füllkrug gave Werder Bremen a lead that Mainz 05 never fully overcame, despite generating more volume of play and more clear chances across the ninety minutes.