Genoa and Fiorentina, Serie A's two bottom dwellers, fight for breathing room at the Luigi Ferraris

Some games get played with the standings looming in the background, and this is one of them. Genoa sits dead last with just 1 point from 5 Serie A matches, and hosts a Fiorentina side at the Luigi Ferraris that isn't exactly thriving either, sitting 17th, with only 3 points separating the two clubs in the table. For Daniele De Rossi's Genoa and Paolo Vanoli's Fiorentina, this is practically an early final in the race to climb off the bottom.

Genoa arrives bruised: so far this season it has 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses, with just 3 goals scored and 10 conceded. Over its last five matches it managed only one win, one draw and three losses, a run that confirms the problem isn't a one off. Fiorentina is only a notch better: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses on the season, with 6 goals scored and 12 allowed, though its last five matches showed a bit more life, with two wins, one draw and two defeats.

Looking at the full table, the top is led by a trio tied at 13 points (Roma, Internazionale and Lazio), and from there down it's a tight funnel all the way to these two clubs. Genoa closes out the table in 19th place, and Fiorentina sits just two spots above in 17th, separated by those same 3 points shown in the standings. Neither side can afford to give up any more ground.

What our own trends show

Outside the league's official record, our own season trends (a different sample, best not mixed with the figures above) paint a similar picture: playing at home in Serie A this season, across a sample of 3 matches, Genoa averages 0.667 goals scored and 2.333 conceded per game, with no clean sheets, and tends to score between the 16th and 30th minutes. Fiorentina, in a sample of 5 matches home and away, averages 1.2 goals scored and 2.4 conceded, also without a clean sheet, and matches Genoa in that its favorite scoring window is that same 16th to 30th minute stretch. In those numbers, Milutin Osmajic and Johan Vasquez stand out as Genoa's top scorers in the sample, while Franco Mastantuono, Mateo Pellegrino and Alex Jimenez lead the way for Fiorentina.

The head to head record doesn't do Genoa any favors either: of the 8 matches played between the two, Fiorentina has won 5, there have been 3 draws, and Genoa hasn't won a single one, with a combined score of 6 goals for Genoa against 18 for Fiorentina.

Possible lineups

Genoa's likely starting eleven (medium confidence) would feature Justin Bijlow in goal, a back line of Alessandro Marcandalli, Leo Ostigard and Johan Vasquez, a midfield of Mikael Ellertsson, Morten Frendrup and Djibril Sow, and up front Tommaso Baldanzi alongside Lorenzo Colombo, with Milutin Osmajic and Vitinha as additional attacking options. On Fiorentina's side, the projected lineup (low confidence) would have David de Gea between the posts, a back line of Radu Dragusin, Luca Ranieri, Viery and Alex Jimenez, Cher Ndour, Nicolo Fagioli and Arthur Atta in midfield, and Franco Mastantuono, Mateo Pellegrino and Alieu Njie up top.

What the model says

Our in house model gives Fiorentina a slight edge, though nothing overwhelming:

The numbers are tight, with the draw running close to both outcomes. The expected goals estimate backs that up: 1.24 for Genoa and 1.41 for Fiorentina, a combined 2.66 that lines up with our model giving a 57% chance of more than 2.5 goals in the match, and a 40% chance that both teams score. It's worth noting all of this is our own estimate drawn from the season's trends, not a closed forecast or a betting line.

With two bottom feeders in need of a turnaround and a head to head record that clearly favors the visitors, the Luigi Ferraris could end up hosting an open game, the kind that stays unresolved until the final whistle.