Genoa Looks to Confirm Strong Start Against Unbeaten Südtirol

Genoa arrives at this Coppa Italia fixture with fresh memories of a 4-1 win in its opener, while Südtirol carries a 2-2 draw from its own first match. Neither side has a long tournament run behind it yet, but the contrast in results already tilts the odds before a ball is kicked at the Luigi Ferraris.

Genoa's overall picture, however, isn't as bright as that standalone result suggests: over its last five matches the club has managed just one win, one draw and three losses, with the most recent stretch marked by three straight defeats before salvaging a point. It's a small sample and doesn't speak to the tournament itself, but it does suggest the team isn't arriving in peak form. Südtirol, on the other hand, is trending the opposite way: two wins and three draws in its last five matches, without a single loss. It's not a squad that wins often, but it doesn't lose either.

As for trends specific to this 2026 Coppa Italia, both teams share a curious stat: neither kept a clean sheet in its lone match so far in the competition (0% for both), which lines up with that 4-1 and 2-2 from the previous round. Genoa scored mostly between minutes 31 and 45, while Südtirol found the net between minutes 16 and 30. These are single-match samples, so they should be read as a hint rather than a certainty.

What the History Shows

Head-to-head meetings are scarce but favor the Genoa side: of two matchups, Genoa won one and the other ended in a draw, with Südtirol yet to claim a win. Across those two games, the aggregate score sits at 2-0 in favor of the home team.

Possible Lineups

Genoa's likely starting eleven, with moderate reliability based on recent matches, points to Bijlow in goal, a back line of Marcandalli, Vásquez and Østigård, and a midfield featuring Ellertsson, Frendrup, Baldanzi, Sow and Norton-Cuffy, with Colombo and Vítinha up front. Marcandalli, in fact, was among the scorers in the club's Coppa opener.

Südtirol, also with an estimated lineup, would field Plizzari in goal, a back four of Stivanello, Giorgini, Stabile and Veroli, a crowded midfield with Tronchin, Bjarkason, Molina, Vasic and Rispoli, and Vasco Lopes as the lone attacking reference.

What the Numbers Say

Our model, built on this season's trends, gives Genoa a clear but not overwhelming edge. These figures are our own estimate, not a betting line or a closed forecast.

With 61% for the home side against 13% for the visitors, the model marks Genoa as the clear favorite, though the 26% draw probability is a reminder the match is far from decided in advance. The expected goals figures, 1.72 to 0.69, point to a game with more offensive volume from the home side than from the visitors.

With the round on the line and both teams looking to confirm their path in the Coppa Italia, the Luigi Ferraris has the makings of a game with goals, and a Genoa side under pressure to prove that opening 4-1 was more than a mirage.