Genoa edges Venezia 1-0 as Ellertsson's stunner decides it despite being outplayed

A left-footed strike from outside the box that curled into the top right corner was all Genoa needed to take the three points against Venezia: 1-0 at the Luigi Ferraris, with Mikael Ellertsson scoring the only goal of the match. It was the moment that decided a game in which Venezia had far more of the ball as the minutes wore on but could never find a way to equalize.

The goal came in the 24th minute. Ellertsson finished with his left foot after an assist from Stephan El Shaarawy, making it 1-0, a scoreline that would hold for the rest of the match. Before that, Genoa had given a warning with a header from Leo Østigård in the fifth minute and a couple of attempts from Junior Messias and Mario Mitaj between the 12th and 13th minutes, while Venezia answered with a shot from John Yeboah that was met with a solid save just a minute before the home side's goal.

Venezia took over the ball, but not the scoreboard

After the break, with the score still 1-0, the visitors took control of the game. John Yeboah, Antoine Hainaut, Kike Perez and Toma Basic tried their luck from every angle, and Simon Sohm nearly leveled things in the 71st minute with a header off a corner kick that grazed the crossbar. Genoa, meanwhile, dropped back and looked to hit on the counter, with attempts from Lorenzo Colombo and Alex Amorim that were dealt with by Venezia's defense. The match stretched into stoppage time, where Lion Lauberbach had Venezia's last chance with a header that drifted wide left, but the score never changed.

The match stats tell that story well: Venezia controlled possession and generated more overall volume, but Genoa made the most of the one chance that truly troubled the opposing goal.

In our own expected goals estimate, calculated from the shots taken in the match, Venezia generated 1.818 against Genoa's 0.827, a gap that backs up what the shot count already showed: the visitors had more and better scoring chances over the course of the game, but Genoa was far more clinical when it mattered.

Our preview ahead of the match gave Genoa a 41% chance of winning, with 29% for a draw and 30% for a Venezia win, with combined expected goals of 2.64 (1.43 for the home side and 1.2 for the visitors). The final result, with just one goal in the entire match, came in under that offensive projection, though the outcome, a home win, was the scenario our model considered most likely.

Genoa, coached by Daniele De Rossi, came into the match in a tough spot in the standings, sitting 16th with 7 points from 8 games (2 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses) before kickoff. Venezia, under Davide Nicola, was last with 3 points from 8 games (1 win, 0 draws and 7 losses). The gap between the two sides in the table was just 4 points, and this result stretches that distance in Genoa's favor.

With this win, Genoa picks up a result that offers some breathing room near the bottom of Serie A, while Venezia still can't find the goals needed to climb out of the relegation zone, despite being clearly the better side for long stretches of the second half.