Getafe and Málaga meet at the Coliseum both desperate to end their slumps

Neither side is arriving in good shape. Getafe have picked up 5 points in six games and Málaga just 3, so this LaLiga clash at the Coliseum feels less like a normal fixture and more like a shared emergency. The two clubs have more in common than just the bottom of the table: neither has won in quite a while.

Getafe, coached by José Bordalás, sit 16th with a record of one win, two draws and three losses, having scored 3 goals and conceded 7 so far this season. The last five games do not paint a much better picture: two draws and three defeats, with no wins in that stretch. At home, though, there is an interesting wrinkle: over their last three home games in LaLiga this season, they are averaging 1 goal scored and just 0.66 conceded per match, with a clean sheet in 33% of those games. That is a small sample and does not reflect the team's overall form this season, but it does suggest a sturdier Getafe when playing at the Coliseum. Enes Ünal, Martín Satriano and Ramón Terrats stand out as the top scorers in that home sample, each with one goal.

Málaga are in worse shape: they sit 19th with 3 points, still without a win in six games (0 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses), having scored 3 goals and conceded 11. Recent form offers little comfort either: three draws and two losses in their last five, again without a win. On the road this LaLiga season, the numbers are even more worrying: just 0.34 goals scored per game against 2.34 conceded, with no clean sheets in that three-game sample. Adrián Niño, Carlos Dotor and Chupe lead the scoring away from home with one goal each, and curiously, Málaga tend to score later in games, mostly in the final 15 minutes.

What the head-to-head record says

The two sides have a fairly even history in terms of goals: 8 meetings, with 5 wins for Getafe and 3 for Málaga, no draws, and an identical overall goal tally of 7 apiece. The home team has come out on top in most of these direct meetings.

Likely lineups

Getafe's probable starting eleven, based on their recent matches, would have David Soria in goal, a back four of Djené Dakonam, Zaid Romero, Johan Mojica and Andrés García, a midfield of Martín Satriano, Orel Mangala, Ramón Terrats, Francho Serrano and Nemanja Gudelj, and Enes Ünal leading the line.

For Málaga, the likely lineup has Alfonso Herrero in goal, a back line of Einar Galilea, Ángel Recio, Rafita and Carlos Puga, a midfield of Izan Merino, Carlos Dotor, David Larrubia, Joaquín Muñoz and Dani Lorenzo, and Chupe as the central striker. In both cases these are projected lineups, not confirmed ones.

What the numbers say

Our model, based on this season's trends, gives Getafe a slight edge as the home side, though not by a wide margin:

These numbers point to a match with a clear but not overwhelming favorite: the 33% chance of a draw sits close to Málaga's 23%, and combined the two nearly match Getafe's 44%. This is our own estimate, not a betting line. On top of that, the probability of both teams scoring is just 33%, and the chance of over 2.5 goals drops to 17%, a sign the model is not expecting a high-scoring affair.

With both sides desperate for points and defenses that have leaked goals early in the season, this match at the Coliseum has all the makings of a game decided by small details: a set piece, an individual mistake or that slight edge Getafe show when playing at home.