Gimnasia Mendoza thrashes Independiente 3-0 in Copa Libertadores de América with a Lencioni brace

Independiente controlled the ball and fired off more shots on target than you'd expect from a team that lost 0-3, but it still ended up getting routed on its own turf. Gimnasia Mendoza walked away with a resounding 0-3 win at Estadio Libertadores de America, with Facundo Lencioni scoring twice and showing off his range from outside the box.

The match didn't open up until the very end of the first half. Independiente had its chances: a shot from Josias Palais that grazed the post, an attempt from Lautaro Millan that the defense blocked, and even a one-on-one for Felipe Tempone that he couldn't get past the keeper. But just as it looked like the sides would go into the break scoreless, the hammer blow landed. In the 41st minute, Esteban Fernandez struck a low shot just inside the left post off a Lencioni assist, sending Gimnasia Mendoza into the lead right before halftime.

The visitors sensed the second half was fertile ground for hurting their hosts on the counter. Barely into the second period, in the 52nd minute, Lencioni popped up with a left-footed strike that flew into the top left corner off a well-executed counterattack, once again assisted by Fernandez. The home side hadn't even had time to absorb that blow when, in the 59th minute, Lencioni struck again, this time with another left-footed effort from outside the area that found the middle of the goal. In just 18 minutes, Gimnasia Mendoza had put the game away.

Independiente turned to its bench in search of a response, bringing on Matias Abaldo and Chimy Avila, and created some chances late on (a shot from Ramiro Martino, another from Ivan Marcone, several corners in a row), but couldn't pull one back. The Mendoza side, with substitutes Brian Andrada, Matias Vargas and Ignacio Sabatini, managed the pace of the game to its liking and closed it out without any scares.

The numbers behind the match

Possession and overall volume of play belonged to Independiente, which controlled the ball and won more corners, but the visitors were the more clinical side.

As for the xG estimated by our model based on shot location, the split was nearly even: 0.874 for Independiente against 0.902 for Gimnasia Mendoza. In other words, beyond the lopsided 3-0 scoreline, the offensive output data doesn't show a huge gap between the two sides: the visitors were simply far more surgical with the little they had.

The result runs counter to what we'd projected before kickoff. Our model gave Independiente a 54% chance of winning, against just 18% for Gimnasia Mendoza (with a 28% chance of a draw), and we expected a tight scoreline with expected goals of 1.57 for the home side and 0.80 for the visitors. None of that played out on the field: Gimnasia Mendoza didn't just win, it won clearly, squeezing every drop out of its few chances.

What the result means

In Group A, Gimnasia Mendoza climbed to 15 points on a record of 5 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in 7 matches played, taking over as group leader. Independiente, with 10 points from 3 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in its 7 outings, remains well off the pace: the gap between the two sides in the standings now stands at 5 points. For the home side, dominating the run of play counted for nothing against a rival that made it pay for every mistake with a goal.