Gimnasia Mendoza hosts a Newell's side unbeaten in its last five

With just zero points separating them in Group A, Gimnasia Mendoza and Newell's Old Boys arrive practically tied in the standings, split only by goal difference. They face off at the Victor Antonio Legrotaglie stadium in Argentina's Primera Division, with both sides looking to climb out of a midtable logjam where a single result can shuffle several spots.

The home side, coached by Dario Franco, comes in with 5 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in 11 matches played this tournament, scoring 14 goals and conceding 12. But the more immediate concern is recent form: over its last five matches, Gimnasia Mendoza has managed just one win, two draws and two losses. As for its home record this 2026 season, the club averages 1.12 goals scored and 1 conceded per game across 8 matches, with clean sheets in 25% of them, and tends to find the net mostly between the 31st and 45th minutes.

Newell's Old Boys, meanwhile, has put together 4 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses in the tournament, scoring 11 goals and conceding 8. Its recent form shows notable defensive solidity: over the last five matches it hasn't lost once, with four draws and one win. On the road this 2026 season, however, Frank Kudelka's side becomes more vulnerable: it averages 1.12 goals scored but 2.12 conceded per game across that sample of 8 matches, without a single clean sheet, and tends to score later, between the 76th and 90th minutes.

The head-to-head record doesn't favor the home side either: in the 2 meetings on file between these two, Newell's Old Boys won both, with a combined scoreline of 2-0.

Probable lineups

Gimnasia Mendoza is expected to field Cesar Rigamonti in goal, a back four of Ezequiel Munoz, Diego Mondino, Matias Recalde and Luciano Paredes, and a midfield featuring Esteban Fernandez, Fermin Antonini, Facundo Lencioni, Luciano Cingolani and Tomas O'Connor, with Agustin Modica leading the attack. He is, in fact, the team's top scorer in home matches with 4 goals, ahead of Ezequiel Munoz and Facundo Lencioni, both with 2.

On the visiting side, Newell's Old Boys' probable lineup would have Josue Reinatti in goal, Martin Ortega, Lautaro Giannetti, Lucas Carrizo and Jeronimo Russo across the back, Walter Mazzantti, Facundo Guch, Luca Regiardo, Rodrigo Herrera and Santiago Solari in midfield, and Matias Coccaro up front. Both lineups are estimates based on recent matches, not confirmed rosters.

What the numbers say

Our model projects an even match, though with a slight lean toward the home side:

These numbers don't point to a clear favorite: 42% for the home side against 26% for the visitors, with a 32% chance of a draw in between, point to a wide open contest. This is EnPelotas' own projection, not a betting line. On top of that, our model also puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in the match at 50%, and the chance of both teams scoring at 47%, reinforcing the idea of an even matchup with scoring chances for both sides.

With Gimnasia Mendoza looking to snap its recent home skid and Newell's Old Boys trying to build on its good run without stumbling on the road, the Victor Antonio Legrotaglie stadium is set up for a tight contest, one where any small detail could tip the balance in the Group A standings.