Gimnasia Mendoza looks to pressure Instituto by hosting a Boca side stuck in neutral in Argentina's Primera Division

Second against eighth, but with a gap of just five points that says more than it looks. Gimnasia de Mendoza hosts Boca Juniors at Estadio Victor Antonio Legrotaglie hoping to pile pressure on Instituto, the leader of Group A, while Boca arrives needing to stop drawing so many games. The matchup is part of Argentina's Primera Division and carries far more weight than the table position suggests.

The home side arrives in great form: of its last five matches, it won four and lost only one. So far in the tournament it has racked up five wins, no draws and two losses in seven outings, with 12 goals scored and 5 allowed, a plus 7 goal difference that only Instituto can match at the top of the group. Playing at home in this season's Primera Division of Argentina, Gimnasia Mendoza averages 1.12 goals scored and 1 allowed per game across a sample of eight matches, with a 25 percent clean sheet rate and its best scoring stretch between minutes 31 and 45. Agustin Modica stands out as the top scorer in that sample, with four goals.

Boca, on the other hand, can't find its rhythm: two wins, four draws and just one loss in seven matches, with 7 goals scored and 8 allowed, a negative balance that has it sitting in eighth place. Recent form confirms the pattern: over the last five matches it picked up two wins and three draws, without losing, but without building any real momentum either. As a visitor in this same competition and season, over eight matches it averages 1.76 goals scored and 0.76 allowed, with half of its games ending in a clean sheet and its best scoring run coming late, between minutes 76 and 90. Miguel Merentiel leads that sample with five goals, followed by Milton Gimenez and Adam Bareiro with three each.

The head-to-head record between the two shows no clear favorite: they have met twice, with two draws and a perfectly even goal split, 2 to 2 overall. Neither has beaten the other in those meetings.

Likely lineups

Gimnasia Mendoza could take the field with Cesar Rigamonti in goal and a back line of Matias Recalde, Ezequiel Munoz, Diego Mondino and Juan Franco. In midfield, Facundo Lencioni, Fermin Antonini, Esteban Fernandez, Luciano Cingolani and Tomas O'Connor could feature, with Agustin Modica as the attacking reference point. It's a probable lineup, with medium reliability based on recent data.

Boca, with a lower-reliability lineup due to recent rotation, could field Alvaro Montero in goal, Lautaro Blanco, Lautaro Di Lollo and Leandro Lozano on defense, Santiago Ascacibar, Milton Delgado and Leandro Paredes in midfield, and an attack with several options: Miguel Merentiel, Leonel Flores, Tomas Aranda and Sebastian Villa.

What the numbers say

Our model gives a clear edge to the visitors, though it doesn't consider the outcome fully settled:

This is our own estimate drawn from the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive prediction. Expected goals back up that reading: 0.71 for the home side against 1.35 for Boca, for an estimated total of 2.07. On top of that, the probability of both teams scoring sits at 75 percent, and the chance of the match going over 2.5 total goals reaches 50 percent.

With a home team riding high in the standings and in confidence, and a Boca side that needs a win to avoid getting stuck in a rut of draws, the match at the Victor Antonio Legrotaglie promises everything except predictability.