Guadalajara hosts a struggling Necaxa, with model giving the home side up to 64% chance of winning

Some matchups tell you everything just by glancing at the table: Guadalajara sits fourth with 20 points while Necaxa is second to last with 9, eleven points back. That gap is the backdrop for this Liga MX clash at Estadio Akron.

Guadalajara arrives having played 12 matches, with 5 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses, scoring 19 goals and conceding 12. Over its last five games, the form has been lukewarm at best: one win, three draws and a loss, with that most recent draw as the latest entry. It's not a juggernaut at this stage, but it isn't losing ground either. Necaxa, on the other hand, is going through a rough patch: in the tournament it has managed just 2 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses, with 15 goals scored and 25 allowed, the worst road goal difference among the teams fighting at the bottom of the table. And over its last five matches things have gotten worse still: four losses and a draw, with no wins at all.

Looking at each team's recent scoring output on its own turf (a separate sample, from the 2026 season rather than the tournament's official record), Guadalajara as the home side averages 1.66 goals scored and 1.16 allowed per game across six matches, with 33% of those games ending in a clean sheet and a tendency to score between the 31st and 45th minutes. Ricardo Marin stands out as the team's top scorer in that sample with 5 goals, followed by Roberto Alvarado and Santiago Sandoval. Necaxa, on the road, averages 1.39 goals scored and 2.21 allowed across five matches, without a single clean sheet, and tends to score early, between minutes 0 and 15. Julian Carranza is by far its standout name in that sample, with 7 goals.

A history that leans heavily one way

The head-to-head record between the two sides doesn't leave much room for doubt either about who has had the upper hand: of 8 meetings, Guadalajara won 5, there was 1 draw and Necaxa won 2, with a combined goal tally of 15 for Guadalajara against 7 for Necaxa.

Likely lineups

Gabriel Milito could roll out much of the same squad that has been a regular fixture in recent weeks: Raul Rangel in goal, a back line with Daniel Aguirre, Diego Campillo and Luis Romo, and up front the duo of Ricardo Marin and Santiago Sandoval, with Roberto Alvarado driving the midfield. This is an estimated lineup, drawn from recent matches rather than confirmed. On Juan Reynoso's side, the projected lineup is less reliable: expected starters include Luis Jimenez in goal, a defense featuring Agustin Oliveros and Raul Martinez, and Julian Carranza as the lone fixed point up top, having started in each of the last six matches without exception.

What the numbers say

Our model gives a clear, though not overwhelming, edge to Guadalajara, and it's worth reading that number carefully before treating it as settled.

This is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast. The expected goals figures back up that read: 2.19 for Guadalajara against 0.97 for Necaxa, for a combined total of 3.16. On top of that, the probability of both teams scoring sits at 67%, and the chance of more than 2.5 goals in the match stands at 47%, a sign that, despite the gap in the projected scoreline, Necaxa finding the net too isn't out of the question.

With Guadalajara looking to settle into the upper half of the table and Necaxa desperate to snap a slide that's already weighing on its standing, Estadio Akron hosts a matchup with fairly well-defined roles on paper, though as always, the soccer itself will have the final word.